The probability of a decrease in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate on December 18 is already 96.2%. It is about a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. Such data is provided by #CMEGroup. For example, on November 14, it was only 62.4%.

Let us remind you that this data from #CMEGroup is not some kind of survey. The FedWatch Tool from CMEGroup analyzes futures on Fed rates to predict the probabilities of changes in the federal funds target rate at future Fed meetings. This means that the forecasts are based on market expectations and contract prices for futures.

Overall, there are currently no signs to suggest that the Fed's decision will go against the consensus forecast from market players. And this decision is already being factored into the prices of risky assets.