Now there's not much to analyze in this market; Bitcoin has no rebound strength. Whether it goes up or not, it will either continue to consolidate or drop. Don't panic; this is just a normal correction. The goal of the market makers is very clear: to clear long leverage while the Asian market is resting to keep the market light, thus enabling a smooth upward trend.
Currently, it's hard to say if there's a limit down; if you can't resist the urge to enter, do it in batches, don't go all in!
Before the bull-to-bear transition in the second half of next year, Bitcoin's new high will definitely not be 1046, so don't be afraid; opportunities come from declines, and risks come from rises. If you can't seize the opportunity after a decline, you're highly likely to bear the risk of chasing the rise!
Returning to today's daily BTC market analysis, from the K-line perspective, the 1-hour level is rising, the 4-hour level is still weak in its rebound, the 12-hour level is declining, and the daily level is also declining, with an intraday resistance at 98,500 and a support at 94,000 USD.
Another one worth noting is tonight's U.S. release of the November CPI data:
On December 11, 2024, at 21:30 (UTC+8), the U.S. Labor Department will release the unadjusted CPI annual data for November. The forecast is 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.60%.
Based on tonight's CPI data, this price is a great mid to long-term buying area: if the CPI is bearish, you can buy mid to long term spots in the range of 91,000-94,000.
Not recommended for contracts, after all, you're all playing with high leverage.
Recently, altcoins have really been like Bitcoin with huge leverage; when Bitcoin drops by 1%, altcoins can crash.
On December 6, during the morning wave, Bitcoin's drop from 100k to 90k was quite on point, and all over 10X leverage was cleared.
On December 10, around five in the morning, this wave, 3X altcoins, were all cleared.
I reviewed several data points; on the same day, Moodgen's volatility was 50%. Other similar market cap drops had similar volatility, which means 2X leverage could be wiped out.
WIF daily volatility around 35%, market cap 4 billion, this part of the market cap in this range, 3X leverage, has been cleared.
This kind of flash crash should not be heavily bought; beware of rebounds that don't happen leading to a wave of declines. The principle is not to take these 'falling knife' orders. Otherwise, it could very likely turn into a funeral home!
Altcoins need to differentiate; focus on low-level rebounds and strong market makers using mainstream coins for V-shaped recovery!
Funding rates are returning to normal; bull markets often have more sharp declines, which is why losing money in bull markets is often more than in bear markets!
Losing money on contracts means the principal is gone; losing money on spots at least means the coins are still there.
You must understand a principle: the market cannot rise forever; major capital will always use various methods to make some investors exit to maximize their own profits!!!
But fortunately, from the decline in the past two days, we can see which ones will rise and which ones are really weak.
For example, stronger ones include: PEPE, ONDO, JTO, MOVE, ME, HSK.
PEPE
PEPE is the leader of the entire bull market MEME, and it has a very good storyline. It's a coin that outperforms Bitcoin; although it has broken the previous high, it can still double without much issue. The entry point looks quick: around 0.21-0.22.
ONDO
RWA has a good ecosystem and has already been implemented, plus there's BlackRock's background. During a crash, it can definitely be chosen, but I probably won't buy it because there are coins between 0.2-0.6, which have already been laid out. Why buy 1.5-1.7?
JTO
The SOL sector, compared to the ETH sector's LDO market cap, conservatively should be at least 60% of its market cap. This coin rises slowly and declines gradually. When the market crashes, it starts to act; everyone gets used to this. So every time there’s a big drop, you can buy it; I always set orders every time.
Avoid those coins with deep flaws.
The characteristic of altcoins is high volatility; they rise quickly and sharply, with short-term fluctuations far exceeding Bitcoin's, and they drop similarly. So during the pullback phase, holding altcoins can feel quite painful, but don’t forget that during the crazy surge, it's you altcoin holders who look down on Bitcoin holders! Gains and losses come from the same source.
Lastly, let me give you guys a password.
rsr now: 0.0133u, has a SEC chair's big uncle, and will take office in more than a month. Previously served as an advisor at rsr. After taking office, there will definitely be major benefits.
This narrative is very bullish; previously the spot market directly surged nearly twice, and now it's pulling back to support at the 4H EMA. I think it's a very good opportunity to ambush the spot. If it drops below 0.0125, then you can add positions.
This is the previous news, which has already been speculated. However, the main event is yet to come. After taking office, there will definitely be narrative speculation. Hold spot positions for the short to medium term, expecting a rise of over 30%!