Recent CME 'Fed Watch' data show that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is as high as 85.8%, which holds significant meaning for the market. From historical experience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct impact on the liquidity and risk appetite of global capital markets. Over the past year, due to inflationary pressures and rising interest rates, the market has generally been in a tightening state. However, as inflation levels gradually decline, expectations for future rate cuts are warming up, which will undoubtedly inject new vitality into risk assets.
Specifically, by January next year, the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further accelerate, with a 50 basis point rate cut probability reaching 22%. In a low-interest rate environment, market funding costs will decrease, corporate financing costs will lower, and the risk appetite of capital markets will significantly improve. From the perspective of the Bitcoin market, this means more liquidity may enter this field, especially as institutional investors may reassess the role of digital assets as a hedging tool.
Recent dynamics interpretation of the Bitcoin market
Currently, Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $95,000, marking one of the largest single-day declines this year. However, this adjustment does not signify a complete shift in market sentiment. From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's oscillation around $100,000 is more about solidifying its previous upward momentum. Charlie Morris, Chief Investment Officer of ByteTree Asset Management, pointed out that Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is just a starting point; a true upward breakthrough in the future will rely on a sustained influx of capital.
Potential impact of Russia's Bitcoin strategic reserves
Russian State Duma representative Anton Tkachev proposed the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, marking another important development in global Bitcoin adoption. Currently, geopolitical uncertainty and the weakening reliance on the US dollar are driving sovereign nations to seek new reserve assets. Bitcoin, as a decentralized and censorship-resistant asset, possesses unique advantages in this context.
If major economies like Russia start to promote the adoption of Bitcoin through legislation and policy, it will not only significantly boost market confidence but may also further stimulate Bitcoin's price increase. Meanwhile, other countries may follow this strategy, leading to a global wave of Bitcoin reserves. This trend will further reinforce Bitcoin's status as global digital gold.
The net inflow of the US spot Ethereum ETF yesterday was 37,400 units, valued at $150 million.
The net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF yesterday was 4,779 units, valued at $484 million.
BTC: Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a small bearish candle with a lower shadow, indicating that there is still some buying support in the market during the pullback, especially when it approached the 30-day moving average (around 94,000). However, overall, the current market adjustment trend has not yet ended. Analyzing from a weekly perspective, the trend shows a clear downward tendency, suggesting that there may be further pullback space in the short term.
Overall, considering the current insufficient transaction volume and the lack of significant improvement in the downward trend after the MACD death cross, it is expected that the adjustment will continue in the short term. Next week may continue to test the 30-day moving average or even lower levels. The adjustment is expected to extend until the end of December or early January 2025, at which point the market is expected to stabilize at low levels and gradually oscillate upwards, ultimately challenging new highs.
ETH: Ethereum's daily chart showed a long lower shadow 'medium bearish candle', successfully retracing to the 5-week line mentioned yesterday at 5 AM today, with an overall adjustment this week. Although a rebound is likely in the future, observations at the weekly level suggest that this rebound will not be smooth, with continuous up-and-down price spikes. At this stage, it is expected to stabilize next week and choose an upward direction again.
Altcoins: In recent days, risks associated with altcoins have been highlighted, and the market began to fall yesterday in response. Those who have carefully read the articles may have avoided this round of altcoin washout. The significant pullback in the altcoin market seems fierce but is actually very necessary. Adjustments act like 'cleaning up garbage' in the market, squeezing out some unhealthy bubbles, which instead allows the following trends to be more robust.
It is expected that altcoins may have another wave of downward adjustment, which for players, is actually a good opportunity to re-enter! Don’t be swayed by market panic; patiently find those coins that still have potential after adjustments and gradually accumulate. Every market adjustment is a lesson and a growth opportunity. Remember, when others are at a loss, you, being calm, are already preparing for the next opportunity!
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 78 (Extreme Greed)#加密市场回调
