One month after Trump's election, "cryptocurrency speculators" experienced the "money-making moment" in the cryptocurrency market. Taking November 6, when Trump was elected as the new president of the United States, more than half of the top 100 cryptocurrency tokens by market value rose by more than 100% in the past month, and even doubled in one day almost every day. The cryptocurrency market has officially entered the "copycat season."
It can be said that the cryptocurrency market during this period was in a stage where gold was everywhere. How long will the "money-making moment" of this altcoin season last? Does the cryptocurrency that has not seen a big rise during the altcoin season mean that it has been abandoned by the market? How should retail investors plan?
Trump’s election is considered to be the most critical event in starting this round of cryptocurrency “altcoin season”.
If you click on the "one-year chart" of any cryptocurrency, you will find that November 6 is an important turning point and watershed. It is particularly important to seize the important time point of Trump's election and focus on layout.
When the curtain is raised on the stage-by-stage bull market, the "flow direction" and "flow speed" of funds in the cryptocurrency market, that is, which sectors the funds choose first and which tracks they choose later; in which sectors the funds tend to leave more funds and in which tracks the funds leave less funds, have become the focus of traders' attention.
How to seize the “copycat season” efficiently?
From the perspective of Bitcoin breaking through key points, this round of "Altair Season" can be roughly divided into three stages: the start-up stage of the Altair Season, the acceleration stage of the Altair Season, and the full take-off stage of the Altair Season.
(1) The start-up phase of the altcoin season. The first phase lasted for one week, from November 6 to November 14. During this phase, Bitcoin rose from 69,000 to 90,000. This phase was characterized by Bitcoin and Memecoin leading the entire crypto market.
(2) The acceleration phase of the altcoin season. The second phase lasted for nine days, from November 14 to November 23. After a brief sideways movement at 90,000, Bitcoin quickly broke through 99,000, but stopped at 100,000. This phase was characterized by the rapid rise of "popular public chains" such as Solana and SUI, and the market saw a hundred-fold or even a thousand-fold increase in value in a short period of time. The altcoins began to double in value in one day.
(3) The altcoin season took off in full force. The third stage lasted for two weeks, from November 23 to December 5. After a sideways adjustment from 99,000, Bitcoin finally broke through 100,000. This stage was characterized by the full take-off of altcoins, the flourishing of the crypto market, and the doubling of most altcoins.
It can be found that in the first and second stages, funds mainly flowed into the hottest crypto tracks of the year, such as memecoin and popular public chains, while in the third stage, funds began to "check for gaps and fill in the gaps" and flowed to relatively unpopular tracks and sectors.
As sectors rotate, who is being left behind?
One month is enough time for most cryptocurrency sectors to rotate, but there are still some cryptocurrency sectors that have not been rotated yet.
These sectors may become the focus of market exploration in the future, or they may be completely abandoned by the market.
The major crypto sectors that have been rotated include: public chain sector, stablecoin sector, AI sector, CEX sector, DEX sector, RWA sector, pledge and re-pledge sector, NFT sector, memecoin sector, metaverse sector, DEPIN sector, decentralized storage sector, etc. Most of them are leading sectors or "new dark horses" emerging in the major sectors.
However, there are still many sectors that have not been fully rotated, such as the Bitcoin sector, TON sector, Web3 game sector, Web3 social sector, etc. The leading tokens of these sectors and most of the tokens in the ecosystem have failed to perform strongly in this almost "full bloom" altcoin season.
The Bitcoin ecosystem has been a hotly discussed sector and track in the market many times in 2024, but it did not perform well when altcoins took off from November 6 to December 6. Among the Bitcoin ecosystem tokens in the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value, Ordi increased by 41%, Sats increased by 31%, and DOG increased by 55%. None of them increased by more than 100%.
The TON sector and track have also become the focus of market attention many times in 2024, and multiple tokens have been launched on major mainstream exchanges, but the overall performance has not shown strong momentum. TON has increased by 44%, NOT by 53%, and DOGS by 51%. Other tokens have not yet entered the top 200 in terms of market capitalization, and most of the TON ecological tokens in the top 500 in terms of market capitalization have failed to achieve returns of more than 100%.
In the Web3 gaming sector, GALA currently has the highest market value, with an increase of 188%, but this is mainly reflected in the infrastructure level. In terms of specific game products, although GMT, ACE, etc. have also increased by more than 50%, the increase has not exceeded 100%, and the market has not yet decided to fully pay for them.
The same is true for the Web3 social sector. In the list of the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market value, Web3 social-related cryptocurrencies failed to make the list. This also seems to mean that the development of the Web3 social track is still in its early stages, and the market has not found a good enough investment target in it.
However, although these sectors have not performed strongly enough, it may mean that the sector rotation has not yet ended and structural opportunities still exist.
How long will the copycat season last?
The copycat season has lasted for a whole month, and when it will end has become the focus of market attention.
If Bitcoin fails to break a new high for two consecutive weeks, for example, if it fails to break through 110,000 within two weeks, this may mean that the market lacks new liquidity, and the alt season may end. In addition, the same is true for Ethereum. If Ethereum fails to continue to increase its price based on 4,000 within two weeks, it is also likely to mean that the market is weak.
In addition, the US Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for seven consecutive days. If there is a net outflow, it may also mean that this round of altcoin season has reached a turning point.
The cryptocurrency copycat market has already reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars, which naturally gives rise to some market rules.
The beginning of the altcoin season is often triggered by a major event, such as the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, or Trump's victory in the US presidential election on November 6. After these two events, the entire crypto market started a crazy bull market, which often lasted for a month or even several months.
However, the amount of money flowing into the crypto market is limited, and the alt season will end one day. Often, the more enthusiastic the alt season is, the shorter its duration will be. If Bitcoin and Ethereum fail to reach new highs again within a week or two, this may be a warning sign worthy of attention.
