The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November exceeded expectations, but its strength is not enough to eliminate the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again later this month. Current market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have risen to about 90%. Meanwhile, many Federal Reserve officials tend to take a cautious approach to rate cuts.
In the coming week, U.S. inflation data will be the only key factor that could change the Fed's December rate cut expectations. Given that data shows the U.S. labor market remains strong but is showing signs of slowing, Federal Reserve officials are likely to cut rates this month; however, discussions about whether to pause rate cuts next year have also been brought to the agenda. Policymakers who spoke before the Fed's quiet period generally believe that rates will continue to decline, but will remain cautious about the pace of rate cuts. Here are the key market focuses for the new week:
Monday 9:30 AM, China November CPI year-on-year;
Monday 11:00 PM, U.S. October wholesale sales month-on-month;
Tuesday 12:00 AM, U.S. November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 9:30 PM, U.S. November CPI and core CPI;
Thursday 9:30 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7, U.S. November PPI year-on-year and month-on-month;
Friday 1:00 AM, Federal Reserve announces account fund flows for the third quarter of 2024;
Friday 9:30 PM, U.S. November import price index month-on-month.