On December 15, this week's series of data brings both good and bad news. After the announcement, swap traders reduced their bets on the direction of the Federal Reserve's easing policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.82% this week, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.64%, ending a three-week streak of gains, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.34%. Bitcoin performed strongly, rising for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak since 2021. The last key monetary policy week of 2024 is approaching and is sure to become a focal point for investors. According to relevant statistics, by the close next Friday, at least 22 central banks, accounting for two-fifths of the global economy, will determine borrowing costs. The results may reveal that as decision-makers weigh different risks for the coming year, the advancement of easing policies is increasingly showing an unbalanced tendency. The following are the key information that the market will focus on in the new week:
On Monday at 15:30, ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech;
On Tuesday at 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will give a speech;
On Thursday at 03:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
On Thursday at 03:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
On Thursday (exact time to be determined), the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
On Thursday at 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference;
On Thursday at 21:30, the U.S. third-quarter real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision, U.S. third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter preliminary value, and U.S. December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released.
It is worth noting that the Federal Reserve’s most important core inflation indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—will be released next Friday. Economists predict that the PCE for November (excluding food and energy) is likely to rise by 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show the stable growth of consumer spending and income, strongly demonstrating the resilience of the economy.