November 2023, Bitcoin had a positive start, the price jumped from $34,200 to $38,000. An important metric, Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP), reflects the average price of Bitcoin acquisitions by investors who invested less than 155 days, being the focus for measuring profitability.

Bitcoin's recovery from the cycle low shows a typical pattern in STH RP. The breakout of STH RP and Long-Term Holder RP in December 2022 resulted in a huge spike, pushing Bitcoin from $17,000 to $24,000. This trend continued until August 2023 when a decline occurred, causing Bitcoin to fall below the STH RP of $28,300 and undergo a correction to $24,900. However, in mid-October 2023, Bitcoin managed to surpass the STH RP, triggering a significant rise from $27,900 to $35,000.

Further analysis involves focusing on monthly changes in STH RP and Long-Term Holders Realized Price (LTH RP). Historical data reveals that when the STH RP monthly change reaches $2000, it consistently signals a local top, especially in the post-bear market recovery phase. Additionally, the negative monthly change in LTH RP implies that long-term holders are capitalizing on their Bitcoin investments.

In the current context, without Bitcoin price rising to an all-time high, the convergence of two events becomes very important. When the STH RP monthly change reaches $2000, and the LTH RP monthly change becomes negative, this indicates a potential local top, likely around $38,000 to $39,000.

However, it is important to recognize that while a rise to this level is possible, the overall trend points to a subsequent regression to test the STH RP. This regression could potentially result in a price drop to $30,000 or $31,000, considering that STH RP is showing fluctuations around $30,000 USD.