Today marks a milestone event: the price of Bitcoin has officially crossed the 100,000 mark.
Actually, the price had already approached 97,000 more than half a month ago, but then it underwent a period of adjustment before the round number, and during these two weeks of adjustment, it became a window period for altcoins, with a lot of second-tier blue chips bouncing back with gains of 100-300%. Then today, the leading player officially entered the six-figure era.
Years ago, the crypto world shouted a deafening slogan: 'One coin, one villa'. At that time, it was regarded as an unattainable fantasy, but now it has become tangible. 730,000 is already enough to cover the construction costs of a villa. I think this round of market is nearly over; we'll see how much a coin can exchange for a villa in 4 or 8 years.
Today I came across a news article stating that Meitu has sold all its holdings in cryptocurrencies, making a profit of 79 million USD, planning to distribute a special dividend to shareholders. Meitu entered the market in March and April 2021, investing 50 million USD each in BTC and ETH, totaling 100 million. The cost of ETH was over 1600, and BTC was over 56000.
Actually, the BTC I bought wasn't cheap. After rising to 69,000, it began to correct, dropping to as low as 16,000, leading to significant unrealized losses for Meitu. At that time, many Meitu shareholders were criticizing Cai Wensheng for wasting the company’s money, but this year it turned into a 'true fragrance' moment. Riding this wave, Cai Wensheng cashed out with nearly 80% profit, realizing gains rather than just floating profits; cashing out is the true win.
I have also started taking profits recently, with two dimensions: one is a price grid, selling a portion every few percentage points of increase, but not buying back if it drops. The other is a time grid, selling a portion every few days regardless of price fluctuations. I don't play the one-click clearing game; I extend the operation time so that in the end, I can sell at a relatively decent price.
The reason I started to cash out is that I had two judgments early on: the first is that the extreme of this round of BTC will be in the range of 100,000 to 150,000, and the second is that next year will be a turning point from bull to bear. Therefore, I implemented a dual-dimensional profit-taking strategy.
This year, I really have to thank cryptocurrencies and the US stock market for allowing me to enjoy some good gains even in such a sluggish environment.
……
Today I saw an article, which is actually accurately a summary of a certain roadshow, discussing the outlook for 2025. I think the overall content is relatively reliable, so I will share the summary with everyone.
Next year's GDP target is likely to still be set at around 5%, with no significant downward adjustments.
The deficit rate will be the highest in recent years, but it won't exceed 4%, so it will likely be in the range of 3.8-4%. Special government bonds will be issued amounting to 1.5 trillion, but it may not necessarily cover the consumption sector.
A reserve requirement cut of 100-150 basis points, with an interest rate cut of 50 basis points. If foreign trade pressures are significant, the exchange rate may depreciate to 7.5.
There won't be a significant reduction in production capacity; it's not about excess or not, but reducing capacity too much will impact employment. Prioritizing stable employment no matter what.
The issue of negative inflation is unlikely to significantly improve within the next two to three years. There won't be aggressive income-increasing policies; instead, adjustments will encourage leverage. There will be incentives and subsidies for childbirth.
If the A-shares are at their current position, they won't actively promote the stabilization fund.
I think these are the important points; there’s nothing surprising or alarming, basically aligning with the information I’ve encountered previously and the mainstream range expected by institutions.
……
Today, both markets saw reduced trading volume, dropping to only 1.5 trillion, but individual stocks performed reasonably well, with a median increase of 0.9%, recovering half of what was lost yesterday. Yesterday I said I would observe whether the market style continues to switch; today I observed, and the switch failed, reverting back to the old path dominated by small and micro-cap stocks.
The micro-cap stock index and the CSI 2000 have risen back to high levels, and after the adjustments, they are healthier, making further breakthroughs highly likely. On the large-cap side, institutional sentiment is scattered, unable to generate effective buying power; as soon as there's a slight rise, some people betray and flee. It's unclear whether the money from selling has exited the market or is just chasing concepts.
The market lacks new hotspots, and funds are circling back to invest in AI. The current narrative is in the field of text-to-video, with 9 related stocks hitting the limit up. I usually use pure text AI a lot; I have also tried AI drawing and AI video, but the results always feel a bit off with that strange AI taste. I don’t know if you have this feeling, that you can intuitively tell those images and videos were created by AI.
For example, when AI image generation first came out, I paid 100 yuan on Baidu, thinking I could use AI to generate the cover images for the daily reports cheaply. But after a few days, I gave up; I still had a few dozen yuan left unused, and I preferred to use works from real people for my covers.
Of course, this is just my personal feeling and does not affect market speculation. AI and chip-related sectors have been among the few consistent main lines this year, although they will still be affected by the overall market, showing some fluctuations. However, overall performance is better than the market. Moreover, based on the current situation, these two concepts are likely to have some alpha in 2026.
……
1. The company Mao Geping, which failed to impact A-shares, is about to IPO on the Hong Kong stock market. This time, the attitude of institutions is positive, with enthusiastic bids, and the subscription amount has exceeded 50 billion, making it one of the few hot stocks in recent years. Speaking of which, the IPO direction of A-shares has been too obvious in recent years, desperately promoting technology companies while strictly limiting traditional industries. Could this lead to an oversupply of technology components in A-shares? The stock market should be profit-oriented; overly evident policies can easily become tools, and they are not very profitable tools.
2. Institutions have compiled statistics on the listed companies that insurance funds have taken stakes in this year, covering both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, mainly focusing on public utility stocks with high dividend rates.
That's it for tonight.