Fed officials indicated on Tuesday that they still believe inflation is moving toward the 2% target and hinted at support for further rate cuts, but no one strongly favored or opposed a rate cut for the next meeting in two weeks.
San Francisco Fed President Daly stated, 'We need to continue to recalibrate policy, which is something we will have the opportunity to discuss and debate at our next meeting, and I believe we need to keep an open mind here.'
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was also tight-lipped about the potential outcomes of the Fed's meetings on December 17-18. Goolsbee said, 'In my view, interest rates will decrease significantly from their current levels over the next year, but we meet every six weeks because circumstances are constantly changing.'
The remarks of these two officials were generally consistent with those of several other policymakers who spoke this week, who clearly indicated that they expect the Fed to continue cutting rates next year, but did not express a commitment to a rate cut in December.
Federal Reserve officials have consistently been cautious about providing too much guidance on how policy might evolve, especially after Trump's victory last month, as his commitments regarding import tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration may alter the economic outlook in the coming months.
As Daly, Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Cooke, who also spoke on Tuesday, stated, the Fed cannot react to policies that have not yet been enacted. They are all closely monitoring the upcoming data to weigh the decisions to be made.
In the next two weeks, the U.S. will release several important reports, including the monthly non-farm payroll report to be released this Friday and the November CPI data to be released next Wednesday.
Cooke stated, 'I believe the economy is in good shape after significant progress in recent years toward achieving the dual goals of full employment and price stability. The labor market remains strong, and inflation seems to be developing sustainably toward our 2% target.'
This week, only Fed Governor Waller indicated that he is inclined to cut rates again this month. Fed Chair Powell will speak at 2:45 AM Beijing time on Thursday, marking his last public address before the December meeting.
Financial markets estimate a roughly 70% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points this month, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. They are betting on two more cuts by the end of next year, which is slower than the pace predicted by Fed officials in September. Fed officials will update these rate path forecasts at the end of this year's last policy meeting in two weeks.
Article reposted from: Jinshi Data