dYdX is one of the first and most famous DeFi projects for margin trading. In 2021, it was at the peak of popularity thanks to the "DeFi summer", but now its token ($DYDX) is worth only $1.8, well below the all-time high ($27 in 2021).
Why did dYdX lose popularity?
1. Competition. Many alternative platforms have appeared, such as GMX or Synthetix, which offer simpler terms or better liquidity.
2. High commissions. dYdX runs on Ethereum (L2 StarkEx), which makes transactions cheaper, but competitors have already switched to more efficient blockchains (Arbitrum, Optimism).
3. Tokenomics. A huge amount of tokens are still locked for vesting, which could add millions of tokens to the market in 2024-2025. Investors are afraid of price dilution.
4. Changing trends. Currently, staking, rwa, and Layer 2 solutions are at the peak of popularity, and margin trading has lost a little appeal.
What can bring dYdX back to life?
In 2024, the project planned to launch its own blockchain (on the Cosmos SDK), which would reduce dependence on Ethereum. This can improve UX and attract new users.
If the crypto market peaks again in 2025, the demand for margin trading may increase.
Tokenomics reform (eg burning tokens or changing reward models).
Forecast for 2025
If the team goes ahead with the plans, dYdX could get a second wind:
Optimistic scenario: $5-7, if it is possible to attract liquidity and reduce tokenomic pressure.
Realistic scenario: $3-4 assuming the market is bullish but competition remains strong.
Pessimistic scenario: $1 or below if liquidity and competition issues are not resolved.
Conclusion: dYdX is a project with great potential, but so far without clear guarantees of success. If you plan to invest, focus on the long term and consider the risks associated with competition and token dilution.