Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)
Latest data shows that XRP's market cap once exceeded $136.2 billion, surpassing USDT and reclaiming its position as the 'third largest cryptocurrency by market cap,' returning to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit in 2020.
Previously, Odaily Planet Daily detailed the analysis of the 'US court ruling that Ripple did not violate federal securities laws' in August, see (XRP once surged over 20%, another phase victory for Ripple in the SEC lawsuit). Nearly four months later, the XRP price has surpassed $2.3, an increase of nearly four times, with the market being relatively optimistic about XRP's future performance.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize Ripple and XRP's recent situation and related information in this article for readers' reference.
Macro and micro factors overlap, XRP market cap surges.
According to Infinite Market Cap data, based on a market cap of $136.2 billion, XRP's market cap briefly surpassed China Life Insurance, ranking 139th among global assets; currently, its market cap has reverted to around $132.8 billion. Overall, the surge in XRP's market cap is mainly due to multiple favorable factors on both macro and micro levels:
Macro level: Trump's inauguration is expected to help resolve the 'XRP vs SEC dispute.'
With Trump's successful election as the new US president, the long-standing dispute of 'Is XRP a security?' between Ripple and the SEC may finally come to a conclusion, after all, as the 'crypto-friendly president,' Trump will play a positive role in the subsequent development of the crypto industry.
At the same time, as an active participant in the US presidential campaign, Ripple previously donated $45 million to PAC ahead of the 2024 election, making it one of the largest donors to Fairshake alongside cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase, Jump Crypto, and Andreessen Horowitz. Recently, it donated another $25 million to Fairshake, further demonstrating its strong ambition to influence the political leanings of cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency advisory committee that Trump is preparing to establish, a series of cryptocurrency companies, including Circle, Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, a16z, and Paradigm, are competing for relevant positions, seeking to have a voice in his planned US policy reforms, which also lays the groundwork for XRP's recent good market performance.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also frequently voiced his emphasis on the potential changes in cryptocurrency regulation under President Trump, mentioning: 'Ripple and XRP may face a turning point, as the new pro-cryptocurrency regulatory shift is expected to bring new hope and potentially resolve years-long legal disputes.'
He further pointed out: 'The SEC has been intervening in the cryptocurrency market, picking winners and losers for 6 years... and it has been 4 years since the SEC sued Ripple... Now, as these external (frankly speaking, unnatural and manipulative) market factors gradually disappear, we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The tide is turning, the headwinds are turning into tailwinds, and for those of us who believe in the future of XRP, the opportunity is enormous.' Moreover, in a previous interview, FOX Business reporter Liz Claman also indirectly confirmed that he had met with Trump and discussed cryptocurrency-related topics.
In November, progress in the SEC lawsuit against Ripple was that 'the Second Circuit Court of Appeals issued an order requiring the SEC's litigation brief to be submitted by January 15, 2025.' Subsequently, Judge Phyllis Hamilton approved a final ruling on the resolved Ripple class action lawsuit and ordered a pause on the remaining unresolved lawsuits, a decision that shortened the class action timeframe and paved the way for the trial to begin on January 21, 2025. In addition, the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler previously stated he might resign before or after Trump's inauguration, which also contributed to the previous price increase of XRP.
Coincidentally, the day before January 21 is exactly the first day of Trump's inauguration. Thus, it can be said that Trump will play a 'key role' in this 'battle between crypto institutions and regulators.'
Micro level: 1 billion XRP custody lock, stablecoin release imminent
From the perspective of the project's own development, XRP may also 'bloom anew from an old tree.'
One of the important reasons directly driving the rise in XRP prices may be the '1 billion XRP tokens custody lock' that happened early this morning. According to WhaleAlert monitoring, starting at 2:21 AM today, Ripple re-locked 1 billion XRP in a custody wallet, valued at approximately $1.546 billion. Previously, Ripple stated that it uses a custody account system to provide transparency and certainty for the XRP market. The company locks a majority of its XRP holdings to ensure it does not flood the market and manipulate prices. However, the company also uses XRP in the custody account to invest in and support projects within the Ripple ecosystem. Releasing 1 billion XRP tokens from the custody account each month does not mean all will enter the market. Ripple may choose to sell some to institutions or retail investors, use some for its own purposes, or return some to new trusts.
Additionally, as a cryptocurrency payment company, Ripple plans to expand its territory into the stablecoin field. In mid-November, Ripple announced that it would soon launch the US dollar stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD), which is a stablecoin designed for enterprise use cases (such as payments), focusing on stability, efficiency, and transparency, aiming to enhance Ripple's cross-border payment solutions and meet the growing demand for dollar-denominated transactions. It is reported that the stablecoin may be launched on December 4.
Previously, Ripple has also taken many actions to promote industry collaboration. In October, the digital asset infrastructure provider Ripple designated Uphold, Bitstamp, Bitso, MoonPay, Independent Reserve, CoinMENA, and Bullish as trading partners for the upcoming Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, with market players B2C2 and Keyrock supporting its liquidity. Additionally, it was reported that the cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay had previously announced a partnership with Ripple to support users in purchasing, storing, and managing XRP using their MoonPay accounts. In late November, Ripple also announced a partnership with Archax and UK asset management company ABRDN PLC, with both parties planning to launch the first tokenized money market fund on the XRP Ledger.
A series of positive news has stimulated Ripple and XRP to welcome the 'second spring of cryptocurrency.'
Moreover, the XRP ETF will also be a highlight in the cryptocurrency market going forward, continuously attracting market attention.
Industry insiders actively express: XRP ETF launching first?
As early as late October, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the XRP ETF is 'inevitable.' His main basis comes from the increasing share of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the latest data, the total on-chain holding of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has surpassed 1.12 million BTC (approximately 1.128 million BTC), accounting for 5.7% of the current BTC supply; the on-chain holding is valued at $108.9 billion.
Dune data panel
At the same time, XRP has also received strong support from cryptocurrency professionals from different fields, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
XRP ETF registration has been initiated: WisdomTree fired the 'first shot,' followed by Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares.
At the end of November, Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett stated that the global ETF provider WisdomTree has registered an XRP ETF in Delaware, USA, and that the company has confirmed it is a legitimate filing. It is reported that WisdomTree manages assets exceeding $100 billion.
At the same time, according to The ETF Store president Nate Geraci's post, 'Currently, there are 3 ETF applications holding the current market cap third largest cryptocurrency XRP.'
Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have all submitted spot XRP ETFs. Other issuers are expected to join in as well.
'Grayscale Select': XRP has now joined the cryptocurrency investment portfolio.
In early November, Grayscale officially announced that its XRP Trust Fund is now open to qualified accredited investors, providing investment opportunities for accessing XRP. XRP is the core token of the distributed network XRP Ledger that supports cross-border payments. Subsequently, at the end of November, Grayscale reiterated that it has opened private placements for 17 token trust funds, including XRP, to qualified investors.
The results prove that Grayscale's choice was very wise: according to statistics, Grayscale's cryptocurrency holdings value significantly increased in November. According to Cryptorank data, its cryptocurrency holdings' market cap increased by over 85% in the past month, with the increase mainly driven by tokens including XRP (which saw an increase of over 262% during the same period).
Asset management giant Bitwise has become a partner of Ripple
In November, Ripple stated that it would invest in Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, with the specific amount not disclosed. It is understood that Bitwise Physical XRP ETP, previously known as 'European XRP ETP,' is part of Bitwise's cryptocurrency asset fund suite.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that the decision to invest in the Bitwise fund is very much in line with the trend of increasing interest in cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded products. Subsequently, Bitwise officially announced that the Bitwise Physical XRP ETP (GXRP) asset management scale exceeded $80 million, with Ripple as one of the investors. This product is listed for trading on Deutsche Börse Xetra, allowing European investors to gain exposure to XRP through GXRP.
Industry insiders express unified statements: Solana system, BNB system, ADA system, etc., all stand up.
Just today, Solana co-founder Toly stated: 'We need a national XRP reserve.' This statement is also seen as a response to Trump's previous emphasis on 'establishing a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin.'
At the end of November, CZ retweeted news stating that because XRP is not a security but a commodity under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US Securities and Exchange Commission may abandon the Ripple case. This news originated from an interview with former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo.
Previously, Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson praised Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse as a 'great CEO,' describing their interaction as 'very collaborative.' This public exchange has sparked speculation that Cardano and Ripple may explore establishing a strategic partnership.
Data perspective: Active market trading, multiple data sets hitting historical highs.
From the perspective of market data, XRP is also one of the leaders.
In the South Korean market, Upbit's trading volume increased by over 100% within a week, with the largest contributor being cryptocurrencies including XRP. In the fourth quarter, XRP's trading volume reached $38.6 billion, far exceeding Bitcoin's trading volume of $30.1 billion.
In terms of price, XRP briefly surpassed 2.29 USDT today, reaching a new high since January 2018.
In addition, regarding contract data, according to Coinglass data, the total open position of XRP futures contracts in the entire network is 1.739 billion ETH, approximately $4.051 billion, setting a historical high, with a 24H increase of 20.34%. Among them, Bybit has an open position of 548 million XRP (approximately $1.277 billion), ranking first, with a 24H increase of 19.13%.
In terms of trading volume, as XRP breaks through $2, its 24-hour trading volume has also exceeded $25 billion, currently reaching $25,338,798,676, with a trading volume to market cap ratio of 18.4%, indicating higher trading activity relative to its market cap.
Just to add, influenced by various positive news, the number of XRP-related posts on the X platform has reached as high as 480,000, even surpassing the meme-oriented DOGE-related content significantly.
Indicator of content on the X platform
If all goes well, the XRP ETF may become the 'third cryptocurrency ETF' in the US market following the BTC ETF and ETH ETF.
Conclusion: What is the future direction of Ripple and XRP?
As XRP's market cap once returned to the level before the SEC/Ripple lawsuit, this six-year-long 'first case of cryptocurrency regulation' that originated in 2018 is about to meet its concluding moment, and there are various viewpoints in the market regarding the future of Ripple and XRP.
Previously, Yoshitaka Kitao, CEO of Japan's major financial services firm SBI Holdings, stated that once the SEC issues are resolved, Ripple should prepare for an IPO as soon as possible. (Odaily Planet Daily note: It is understood that SBI Holdings has been collaborating with Ripple since 2017 to promote cross-border payment innovation. Kitao is the core figure in the Ripple-SBI collaboration and joined Ripple's board in April 2019. His long-term support for Ripple and XRP dates back to 2017 when he predicted XRP to be the global standard for digital currencies, emphasizing its efficiency, low transaction costs, and scalability). Although similar proposals were previously shelved by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, it can also be seen as one of the possibilities for Ripple's future direction.
After all, with the further improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment, more 'cryptocurrency concept stocks' may land on the US stock market. At that time, Ripple and XRP may welcome another wave of development peaks.
