Recently, the crypto market has experienced a new round of volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) dominance gradually retreating to around 56%, while the altcoin market's performance has become increasingly strong. This trend may indicate the official start of the altcoin season.
Bitcoin: The macro backdrop remains strong.
Although Bitcoin's price has not yet surpassed $100,000, its macro environment remains full of potential. With Donald Trump's victory in the election, the market expects the new U.S. government to introduce more supportive policies for cryptocurrencies, such as establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Coupled with the successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to rise.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor recently presented a series of advantages of adopting Bitcoin as a financial strategy to the Microsoft board, which may encourage more companies to follow suit, further enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a value storage tool.
However, despite the continuous macro positives, Bitcoin's market dominance has shown a significant decline. From a technical perspective, signs of this trend have long been present. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's dominance, after experiencing a long-term rising channel, is nearing the risk of breaking down. If the trend channel is broken, Bitcoin's dominance could quickly drop to 50% or even lower.
The altcoin season may accelerate its arrival.
The decline in Bitcoin's dominance does not mean its performance is poor, but rather that altcoins are rising strongly. In recent years, the altcoin market has been sluggish due to strict regulation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, with Gary Gensler expected to leave after the Trump administration takes office, the market anticipates an improvement in the regulatory environment for altcoins.
Some iconic altcoins have already entered an upward trajectory ahead of time:
Ripple (XRP): Increased 322% in the past 30 days, contributing $80 billion in market capitalization, re-entering the top four by market cap.
Solana (SOL): Set a new high of $260, becoming a leader in the high-performance blockchain space.
Cardano (ADA): Increased more than 200% in 30 days, demonstrating strong potential for ecosystem expansion.
Ethereum (ETH): Currently retesting the $4000 level, attempting to break through its historical high.
Additionally, according to market analysis from Mikybull Crypto, Bitcoin's dominance typically peaks about 240 days after a halving, followed by a decline period of around 6 months. Historical data shows that dominance dropped to around 35% and 39% during the altcoin seasons in 2018 and 2021, respectively. If the current trend continues, Bitcoin's dominance may further decline to around 40% in the coming months.
Where are the opportunities?
The arrival of the altcoin season is reflected not only in the strong performance of traditional mainstream altcoins but may also lead to explosive growth in small-cap tokens. In fields such as artificial intelligence, Web3, and meme culture, some emerging tokens have already shown extraordinary potential.
Conclusion: Is now the best time to position for altcoins?
The current market environment suggests that the altcoin season may be unfolding, and everyone should focus on high-quality projects with mature ecosystems and widespread applications, while not ignoring the potential explosiveness of emerging tokens. Against the backdrop of declining Bitcoin dominance, altcoins may become the core driving force behind a new wave of prosperity in the crypto market.