On Monday (December 2), Bitcoin fluctuated around $97,900, struggling to break through the critical threshold of $100,000. XRP surged over 20%, with a market value exceeding $100 billion, becoming the fourth largest cryptocurrency globally. A new round of altcoin season has seen Ethereum return to the top 30 global asset market value rankings.
Historical data shows that when Bitcoin dominance decreases, funds typically flow into other tokens. In 2017-2018, altcoins experienced their first wave of explosive growth; while in 2020-2021, decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFTs were the main driving factors. In 2024, institutional capital is expected to enter the market through compliant channels such as ETFs, providing new momentum for altcoin expansion.
According to Trading View data, Bitcoin dominance has fallen by more than 4%. Since Donald Trump's election victory, Bitcoin's share of the cryptocurrency market value has gradually declined, while Ethereum, the US blue-chip public chain Solana (SOL), and Ripple's XRP have risen.
CoinMarketCap data indicates that Ripple's market value currently exceeds $135 billion, while Solana's market value stands at $111.9 billion.
Ripple's ranking in the global asset market value list has also risen by 13 places to 177th, surpassing luxury giant Dior, semiconductor giant Micron Technology, BHP Group, and other well-known firms.
Ethereum's market value has surpassed that of the American chain membership warehouse giant Costco and the Vanguard Group, returning to the top 30 global asset market value rankings, currently ranked 29th.
Ripple has performed strongly in recent weeks, rising since November 10 and now reaching its highest point in seven years for this digital asset.
CoinTelegraph reported that Ripple's rapid price performance can be attributed to an increasing number of key partnerships, new product developments by Ripple Labs, the potential for a Ripple spot ETF on Wall Street, and unconfirmed rumors about billionaire Elon Musk making a large investment in Ripple.
Asset management company 21Shares applied for a Ripple ETF on November 1, raising investor expectations that the SEC will approve this ETF application after Trump took office.
On November 15, NYSE Arca submitted an application to the SEC to list Bitwise's cryptocurrency index exchange-traded products. The Bitwise Crypto Index will include 10 digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Avalanche, and others.
On November 25, asset management company WisdomTree applied for a Ripple ETF in Delaware, joining the ranks of 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise.
Ripple Labs also announced on November 25 the launch of the first tokenized money market fund on the Ripple ledger. This tokenized fund was realized in collaboration with the UK-regulated cryptocurrency exchange Archax.
As part of a collaboration between the two companies, Ripple will tokenize Abrdn's $4.77 billion liquidity fund.
Recent reports indicate that Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin is expected to receive approval from New York financial regulators in the coming days. This is an over-collateralized token pegged to the US dollar.
Bitcoin's upward momentum stalls: Strong dollar from Trump, potential for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
Regarding Bitcoin's trend, Bitwise analysts recently stated that the dollar index has risen from 103.42 on the day Trump won the US election to the current level of 106, which may hinder Bitcoin's path to challenge $100,000.
Analysts state: “Historical data shows that Bitcoin often faces limitations during periods of a strong dollar. Additionally, a strong dollar often signals tightening global liquidity, which is currently the most significant economic factor affecting Bitcoin.”
Furthermore, Bitwise analysts noted that another significant factor that could hinder Bitcoin's rise is the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates on December 19. Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released data on the consumer price index (CPI) for October on November 22, indicating that inflationary pressures still exist, and the USD/JPY has recently declined, increasing the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at the December meeting.
Once Japan raises interest rates again, the yen carry trade that previously triggered global capital market turmoil may re-emerge, and Bitcoin is likely to be affected.
George Milling-Stanley, chief strategist at State Street Global Advisors, warned that Bitcoin's surge in November may have given investors a false sense of security, as current investors tend to buy Bitcoin to profit rather than seeing its long-term value.
He wrote: “In simple terms, investing in Bitcoin is a pursuit of returns, indicating that the influx of investors is chasing profits rather than recognizing Bitcoin's long-term value or utility.”
The Bitcoin ETF options launched last week may be related, as people can bet on price fluctuations with smaller funds, but they do not actually purchase Bitcoin.
Ripple technical analysis
FXStreet's junior cryptocurrency analyst Michael Ebiekutan stated that according to CoinGlass data, Ripple triggered $24.75 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours. The liquidated long and short positions amounted to $7.58 million and $17.17 million, respectively.
Ripple is expected to complete a rounded bottom pattern. If the price firmly breaks through the resistance near $1.96 and is rejected, its upward momentum could extend by more than 30% to $2.58.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the oversold zone, indicating that prices are overheated and may see a correction.
A weekly candle closing price below $1.35 would invalidate this argument.
