In the bear market cycle and the bear-bull alternating cycle (small bull), the trend characteristics of the cryptocurrency market are that BTC rises first, then ETH rises, after that altcoins rise, and finally, after altcoins rise, there is a pullback. However, in the big bull cycle 180 days after the BTC halving day, the market does not follow this characteristic; instead, after altcoins rise, funds immediately rotate back to BTC and continue to rise, which promotes the formation of a one-sided upward trend. Only when reaching a phase high point, which is hard to break for a long time, will there be a pullback, and this pullback is generally a 1-day line adjustment cycle or a 4-hour level adjustment. Therefore, the momentum in the early to mid-stage of the big bull cycle is the strongest; one should not blindly look bearish, short-sell, or chase shorts. An excessive short position is a dangerous move; do not recklessly speculate on the peak of the bull market or mistakenly believe that after a significant rise one can short or expect a drop to 80,000 or 70,000.

I define the starting point of this bull cycle as the early morning of November 5 this year, expecting it to run for 12 months.