Let me make a small addition first. Last night I casually said that the United States is the largest consumer country in the world, and many readers questioned the correctness of my statement. Later, I searched for some data. The size of the U.S. consumer market last year was 18.6 trillion U.S. dollars, ranking first in the world, accounting for nearly 30%. China’s was 6.9 trillion, ranking second in the world, a difference of nearly 1.7 times.
In recent decades, the largest consumer country has always been the United States. China's growth rate is relatively fast, but there is still a large gap in absolute terms. I guess the reason why many readers have misunderstandings is that the media likes to emphasize that China is the world's largest market when reporting on a certain niche field. For example, mobile phones, the world's largest market is definitely China, because the price difference of mobile phones is not large, and the population is large. For example, China is also the largest consumer country for automobiles.
Although the U.S. population is only one-fourth of ours, its per capita income is 6.5 times higher. In addition, the culture there is based on enjoyment and consumption. Every government has implemented monetary easing and spent a lot of money. The national debt is almost 40 trillion, but they still don't care about enjoying life in the moment. This consumption capacity is unique to the blue planet, so all producers around the world want to sell their goods there to earn dollars.
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Today, the two markets traded 1.46 trillion yuan, and the volume remained below 1.5 trillion yuan as in the previous few days. However, the median performed well today, up 1.34%, which gave investors a sigh of relief. Today's market style is a bit interesting, with both the top and bottom being relatively weak, but the middle and waist stocks are leading the gains. This situation is rare, but it is obviously a better choice for the current market.
Investors are fed up with the market where they have to guess the big and small and make bets on both sides. Extreme styles will only encourage style speculation and will do more harm than good to establishing a rational market order.
Today's positive line is very critical. It has greatly improved the pressure brought by the downward trend, but this degree is not enough at present. Even the 10-day line has not been recovered. It is still in a short-selling pattern. In addition, the trading volume is still on the low side, so there is no need to be too happy about a single-day rebound.
As for the reason for today's rise, many people in the market believe that it is the expectation that a new round will be launched due to the upcoming important meeting. The Central Economic Conference in mid-December is a summary of the past year and deployment of economic work for next year. It is important, but after all, there is still half a month away. I think it is a bit far-fetched to attribute today's rise to a new round of pie in the sky.
However, both domestic and foreign institutions have the same expectation on one thing, that is, the government will definitely introduce stimulus policies for consumption next year, and the only difference is the magnitude of the stimulus. Therefore, more and more analysts are bullish on consumption in recent days.
The CSI Liquor Index has four consecutive negative annual lines, -3.4%, -12.5%, and -19.2%, plus this year's -12.2%. However, the valuation has been adjusted in place. The current index PE is 20.4 times, the 10-year cycle percentile is 14%, and the 5-year cycle percentile is 6%. This means that the valuation is lower than 86% of the trading days in the past 10 years and lower than 94% of the trading days in the past 5 years.
In the short term, the strongest sector is still the millet economy. Today, it soared 8%, and 17 stocks hit the daily limit. Most of them are small-cap stocks with a market value of less than 10 billion yuan. Funds are fast and fast, taking advantage of the popularity to attract traffic. I was amused by a report I saw today. On the interactive platform of listed companies, there were more than 140 questions related to millet from shareholders. Most of them asked whether the listed companies had millet business, and if not, whether they would develop it in the future. In fact, what these shareholders want to hear is that the listed companies should consider developing millet business, so that the stock price can take advantage of the hot spot and take off. However, the executives of listed companies are not short-term traders. The ups and downs of stock prices will not benefit them except causing trouble.
Oh, by the way, do you remember what the hot concept was a few days ago? I couldn’t remember it at once, so I went to look through my night reports from a few days ago and saw that it was controlled nuclear fusion. After the market started to pick up, that sector had three consecutive declines.
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1. In the past two days, an internal letter from BYD has been widely circulated. The content of the letter is to inform upstream suppliers and ask them to further reduce costs and reduce prices by 10% from January 1, 2025. BYD is currently the leader in electric vehicles in China, and in fact, it is also the leader in the world in terms of sales, so it has a lot of say in the industry chain. I heard that some suppliers are dissatisfied with this, but I guess they will not publicly oppose it. After all, no one dares to offend such a big party A. BYD responded that annual bargaining is an industry practice, not mandatory, and can be negotiated, but the annual bargaining range in the automotive industry is usually 3-5%. This time it was increased to 10%, so it broke the circle and spread.
I feel that lowering the price of Chinese cars is not the ultimate solution. If your car prices are too cheap, people will impose taxes on you. The end result will be that your own people will suffer, while the European and American markets will suffer. Similar situations have occurred several times in recent years.
2. The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, and Lebanon has also approved it, so it will be officially announced soon. Israel's operation in this wave of Lebanon-Israel conflict is classic. It used intelligence to slaughter all the hawks in Hezbollah's top leadership. Now it has reached a ceasefire agreement with the moderates, striking those who should be struck and uniting those who should be united, which is very accurate. Next, Israel can concentrate its efforts on playing games with Iran. This incident caused the price of air tickets and gold to fall, but the reaction is almost over.
3. Seven departments jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Mutual Recognition of Inspection and Test Results of Medical Institutions. The original intention of this document is to improve the efficiency of medical services and the medical experience, which can also be interpreted as a positive for the industry. CSI Medical Index rose by 1.9% today, slightly firming to show respect.
In addition, the National Medical Insurance Administration published an article today, praising the rapid growth of China's pharmaceutical industry. The example they cited is that the total market value of the top five A-share pharmaceutical and biological listed companies has doubled since the end of 2018. I frowned when I saw it. This is really cunning. The time was deliberately chosen as the starting point of the deep bear pit at the end of 2018, and the target was deliberately selected from the top five companies in terms of market value, because the market value of companies with poor performance would not be in the top five. This kind of tailor-made auspiciousness will be available every year if you want it.
That's all.