Public data shows that as of now, 93 large institutions have collectively held over 2.8 million bitcoins, with a current market value of around 260 billion USD, accounting for 13.4% of the total bitcoin supply. Among them, ETFs rank first, accounting for about 5.97% of the total bitcoin supply, followed by various governments, with the US holding around 1%. Ukraine, which has been in conflict for several years, also holds over 40,000 bitcoins. The strategic position of bitcoin has been soaring.
I previously mentioned a contrasting piece of data: the historical total loss of bitcoins is estimated to be over 3 million, including 1.1 million belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. Most of the previously lost bitcoins were due to early players neglecting their computers during mining, leading to hard drive loss and damage, which indirectly resulted in a decrease in the circulating supply of bitcoin.
Based on the annual ETF institutional buying trend, if it maintains for at most two more bull markets, I fully believe I will see Bitcoin reach one million dollars within my lifetime, especially after Trump took office and included Bitcoin as part of the national strategic reserve, the position of digital gold will be unshakable.
The fundamental market situation has slightly warmed today, and there have been reports of ceasefire news from two recently high-profile countries, with macroeconomic negative sentiments slightly dissipating. The initial jobless claims data released in the evening showed 213,000 people, slightly lower than expected, creating a slight negative impact. However, macro data is stabilizing, and risks from data are temporarily alleviated.
Many partners have recently been discussing when the altcoin season will come. From the current market sentiment, I believe there is a high probability that the official start of the altcoin season will begin within a month. The core signal is that since March of this year, Bitcoin has shown a significant signal of decreasing market value. If interest rates are cut again in December, market liquidity will become even more abundant. The decrease in Bitcoin's market value combined with the recovery of market liquidity makes the first major wave of the altcoin season a certainty.
The most important factor here is the gradually strengthening Ethereum. In the past month, there have been three instances where Ethereum surged against the tide while Bitcoin showed a downward trend on the hourly chart. Even though the surge data is not very attractive, the hidden retail sentiment supporting altcoins is undeniable, and this sentiment is almost identical to the eve of the altcoin season in 2021.
Opportunities are something you wait for, especially in the crypto market. When the trend arrives, and we are already well prepared, we won't even need to bend down to pick it up; real money will automatically flow into our accounts. The premise of patiently waiting is to make the right entry at the right time, along with the necessary stop-loss lines, ensuring that we can sleep well at night while keeping an eye on our accounts is completely sufficient.
The trend has always been there, and I have always been here. In this cycle, let's move forward together again!
BTC: The bitcoin trend currently maintains the perspective from yesterday, with strong support at the bottom range of 91,000 to 92,600 points, showing slight signs of halting the decline. Currently, there are no unexpected black swan events, so the risk of Bitcoin continuing to drop is very low. We can understand this as normal market fluctuations. From the perspective of clearing leverage, if Bitcoin rises back to 96,000 points, over 1 billion in shorts will be liquidated; if it drops back to 91,000 points, over 2 billion in longs will be liquidated. Without a foundation for a major market drop, it will also be quite difficult to reach new highs from this base point. The high-level fluctuations of Bitcoin provide the best positive effect for the altcoin market.
ETH: Ethereum's daily support at 3,300 points has not been broken, and the overall trend strength is currently slightly stronger than Bitcoin. This evening it will attempt to climb back to 3,500 points, with bulls eager to act. According to my predictions, if the altcoin season starts within a month, the prerequisite must be that Ethereum breaks through 3,800 points and remains above that level for three consecutive daily closes. We can truly look forward to it.
Altcoins: The situation with altcoins remains the same as yesterday, with a slight decline overall, and there has been no doubling down like the significant drop during Bitcoin's correction a quarter ago. It is all a normal trend correlation. After stabilizing, I believe the trend is still above the old mainstream. Basically, the old mainstream that has already risen has not triggered high-pressure zones, leaving enough room for growth.
Other altcoins, discussion in the comments section.
The fear and greed index is at 75 today.
In the end, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets!
