Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, dropping sharply from around 99,000 to a low of below 93,000, with a drop of over 6,000 points. Meanwhile, Ethereum rebounded with a maximum touch of around 3,550, driving significant rebounds in Ethereum series value leaders LDO and ENS, which occupied the gain rankings for BN yesterday. Currently, BNB and ORDI, which haven’t rebounded much, can be focused on, as they have hotspots and trading volumes, and they are also projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem. When the trending market starts, it generally lasts for several days.
Previously, it was always indicated that the market has been rising from the bottom without any decent pullbacks. Perhaps institutions are doing a handover. The trend is also expected, but altcoins have not been dropping much, indicating that the altcoin explosion season is getting closer! I am looking forward to the upcoming altcoin market.
From now on, Bitcoin is not just sucking blood; it is starting to 'bleed'. The fact that altcoins are not following the drop proves that as long as you play with leading or strong structured coins and don’t chase highs, there is a high probability you won’t lose money. For example, the strong structured public chains like XTZ, FTM, and the memes like WIF, Floki that were bought some time ago. The main battlefield still needs to allocate more to memes. There won’t be a chance for dozens of times of gains at this stage, so don’t fantasize about it. At least macro conditions would need a large-scale rate cut for that to be possible.
What will the future trend of Bitcoin look like?
The current trend is exactly the same as in 2020, starting to rise in October, doubling by November 25. Last time it was from 10,000 to 20,000, this time it is from 50,000 to 100,000.
The last Friday of November each year is the Western traditional shopping frenzy known as Black Friday, which aligns with the rule of falling during festivals. A large number of retail investors withdraw money to spend, taking away a lot of funds from the crypto circle.
Of course, the amount of money taken out is actually not much, but many people will predict this pullback situation. So even if they don't shop, they sell at the high point, and the combination of both increases the pullback effect.
Last year, during Black Friday, there was a 16% pullback in a week. This time the pullback may be less, with 87,500 being very good support. If it gets there, you can directly enter the market. Additionally, above 90,000 is also a good integer resistance.
Speaking of the previous cycle, it slowly rose again after Black Friday, but the increase was not large. It consolidated for 2 weeks before continuing to explode, so this time it might be similar.
And ETH's strength can surely be seen by everyone. Large funds have entered. When Bitcoin plunged, it consolidated. Once Bitcoin warms up, ETH will start to exert its strength, and any pullbacks can be points to buy.
ETH, SOL, and various small coins can still be accumulated at lows. Once the crypto market consolidates until early December, it will rise again, bringing another big wave!
What stage are altcoins currently in?
First, let’s talk about the rhythm of the entire bull market. This round of the bull market is in two completely different phases around the time when Bitcoin breaks 100,000. After breaking 100,000, the entire bull market will enter an acceleration phase, a super FOMO phase, where both Bitcoin and altcoins will rise crazily in turn. So I have also repeatedly said that the 100,000 mark for Bitcoin will not be easily broken, even if it is still 10 USD short; it won't break now.
The significance of 100,000 is very strong. Before breaking 100,000, currently, BTC and SOL are in consolidation. This rhythm has been repeatedly mentioned and will not be elaborated further. The ETH exchange rate has started to reverse, old altcoins are skyrocketing, and new coins are continuously rising.
The altcoin season is currently in its early stages. Don't be fooled by the crazy rises of the old junk coins; this is just an appetizer. The ETH exchange rate has just started to reverse, and the ETH ETF has just begun to see net inflows. Next, we are waiting for a big rise in Ethereum. Although we haven’t seen positive news for ETH yet, I believe it will come soon, coinciding with Ethereum’s big rise.
During the process of ETH rising sharply, altcoins and new coins will start to get restless. Everyone should grasp this rhythm well.
In the upcoming trend market, which tracks will be hyped?
In terms of risks, from now until the end of Q1 next year, as long as the U.S. economy does not recession, unemployment rates do not rise significantly triggering recession expectations, and there is no global liquidity crisis or other black swan events, the premise is quite good. The positive aspect is that this trend after the elections has not yet ended. Even if interest rates pause next month, after FASB, especially on January 20 when Trump takes office, based on historical experience, the performance of risk markets in the first hundred days of a new president is usually good. For cryptocurrencies, there will also be further easing from interest rate cuts, expectations of ending balance sheet reductions, Trump's commitment to cryptocurrency hype, and the hype around crypto legislation.
So looking at it comprehensively, the current trend is far from over and there is still something to look forward to. Secondly, since this trend is still valid, if altcoins are to rise significantly, ETH is crucial. So the rise of ETH in the past two days is a good sign. Therefore, in the upcoming trend, which tracks can be anticipated?
I personally believe that memes can definitely be expected, and if ETH rises significantly next, it might hype up the memes on the ETH chain.
This should be calculated based on market speculation, expectations of entering major exchanges, market makers, narratives, and past price trends.
After all, there is no project that can keep rising indefinitely; it will eventually pull back and wash out before seeing if it will continue to be hyped.
The reason why Doge is so crazy is due to strong narrative hype (this month due to Musk's mention, Pnut as well), it has entered major exchanges, liquidity is under strong pressure, which can attract external funds, and it has gone through a washout before, thus creating the current situation. Other memes can model and refer to this.
Similarly, public chains, AI (including AI + memes), games, and other tracks are also applicable.
