Directly to the conclusion:

The bull market is not over, but the bears are about to enjoy a moment because a correction is coming soon.

BTC is about to hit $100,000, but several signals indicate that a correction is imminent, and it will definitely be a fierce correction.

Reasons:

1. The closing price of BTC has been above the MA5 for 20 consecutive days. The highest record is 28 days, which occurred during the crazy bull market from December 2020 to January 2021.

2. Whether on the weekly or daily chart, it has surpassed all technical channels, indicating extreme overbought conditions. To use a historical analogy, it is similar to the rise from $19,000 in December 2020 to $40,000 in January 2021.

3. Many old altcoins have surged 3-5 times on just one piece of news, such as XLM, XRP, DOGE, etc.

Conclusion: If luck is on our side, it can still support for another week or two. If luck is not on our side, there will be a fierce correction within this week. Personally, I am quite confident that BTC will break $100,000, but it may not go far; it could start to drop around $105,000 to $110,000. Remember not to get too carried away and take profits in a timely manner.

The difference this time compared to the end of 2020 is that monetary policy is not as loose, and it feels unlikely to be as frenzied as before.

As for the altcoin season, let's wait and see; we can talk about it after BTC breaks $100,000. The total market cap of altcoins is still 25% away from its peak, so it’s still a long way off; I believe it won’t happen all at once.

If BTC breaks the top strongly, it confirms the bull market. If you don’t have the ability to make swing trades, just hold your coins well. In the next six months, as long as it’s not a garbage altcoin, there’s a possibility of 10 times returns; just don’t move. (Lessons from 2021)