Why has Bitcoin experienced a pullback
Last night at 1 a.m., Bitcoin's price fell to a low of 95,734 dollars, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin's quote has rebounded to 97,900 dollars. Nevertheless, the price correction is not surprising, especially since slight fluctuations during the process of reaching a historical high are normal.
After hitting new highs for several consecutive days and being less than 200 dollars away from the 100,000 dollar mark, Bitcoin's price stagnated and retreated from Friday's peak. Initially, Bitcoin fell to 98,000 dollars on Sunday, but bears exerted further pressure, causing Bitcoin's price to drop below 96,000 dollars. Since Friday, Bitcoin's market value has shrunk by over 60 billion dollars, falling below 1.9 trillion dollars.
The liquidation amount is close to 500 million dollars
The market volatility has taken a heavy toll on over-leveraged traders. In the past 24 hours, nearly 200,000 market participants have faced liquidation, with a total amount close to 500 million dollars. Most of the liquidated positions belonged to longs, valued at up to 353 million dollars.
Analyst Ali Martinez shared an interesting prediction about Bitcoin's potential price trend. He pointed out that the TD Sequential indicator has issued a sell signal on Bitcoin's 12-hour chart, suggesting that the price may decline further. If Bitcoin undergoes this correction, the price could drop to 91,583 dollars, or even further down to 85,610 dollars. He also stated that the sell signal would only be considered invalid if Bitcoin's closing price is above 100,535 dollars.
There are two obvious patterns in Bitcoin's bull market cycles:
First, a bull market is usually marked by a parabolic price increase, but the intensity of each rise tends to weaken as the cycle progresses;
Second, after breaking through the parabolic pattern, Bitcoin often experiences significant corrections, usually falling about 80% (±5%) from the peak.
Brandt also shared Bitcoin's current parabolic trend, which, although clear, may change as the market develops. If this pattern is confirmed, Bitcoin's upward trend may continue into January. However, according to the chart's predictions, a significant correction may occur in 2025.
The impact of macroeconomic events on BTC
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a profound impact on Bitcoin's performance.
At the beginning of October, after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, Bitcoin's price fell sharply, which once again proved that geopolitical turmoil often drives investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold, rather than Bitcoin.
Additionally, macroeconomic events in the U.S. continue to affect Bitcoin's price trend. Recently, the U.S. labor market has remained strong, and the latest employment report exceeded expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates. Historically, lower interest rates are favorable for Bitcoin as investors tend to seek higher-risk assets for better returns.
The outlook remains optimistic
Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook remains optimistic. Despite short-term volatility, historical data shows that the outlook for December may continue to be positive. Even in a bullish trend, Bitcoin often experiences corrections. Considering Bitcoin's recent price trends, along with market excitement from Trump's election and ETF inflows, the upward price trend is very likely to continue.
