The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is more than 50%, and the market is clearly warming up.
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has reached 52.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 47.3%. This shows that market sentiment is undergoing subtle changes, and investors' expectations for monetary policy easing are gradually heating up. With the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting minutes to be released on November 27, this market expectation may be further clarified.
Judging from the market reaction, the expectation of interest rate cuts tends to boost asset prices, especially the performance of risky assets. If the Fed cuts interest rates at the end of the year, it will inject more liquidity into the crypto market and reduce the financing costs of the market, which will provide positive support for the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin.
US debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the pressure of new debt may push for a policy shift.
The total amount of US national debt has exceeded $36.034 trillion, reaching a new high. Against the backdrop of high debt, the federal government's repayment pressure has intensified, while the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy has increased the government's financing costs, creating more economic concerns. This context has made policy easing possible, bringing a new wave of optimism to the market.
The rapid growth of stablecoin market value indicates that funds are flowing back into the crypto market.
Data shows that the total market value of stablecoins has exceeded $190 billion, with a 7-day increase of 4.14%, indicating a significant return of market funds. In particular, USDT's market share has reached 69.84%, indicating that investors are reallocating funds in preparation for the next market cycle.
Arthur Hayes: Will Bitcoin rise to $250,000 in the future? The logic is not a fantasy.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year and may exceed $250,000 by the end of 2025. From the current market fundamentals, institutional buying, the expectation of ETF approvals, and the approaching halving event all support the long-term logic for Bitcoin. Hayes' advice is also quite enlightening: for ordinary investors, it is important to avoid excessive greed and to take profits at the right time, which is a rational strategy for long-term market participation.
Musk promotes X Payments, Dogecoin may become the biggest beneficiary
Elon Musk recently confirmed that X Payments is planning to launch a remittance function. Although it is not yet clear whether cryptocurrencies will be included, the market speculates that Dogecoin is likely to become the core payment tool. This would not only enhance Dogecoin's practical application scenarios but could also provide a continuous driving force for its price. Musk's net worth has reached $350 billion, making him an important barometer of the global economy, and the areas he focuses on are sure to attract capital.
According to Token Unlocks data, this week SUI, OP, and IMX will see a one-time large unlocking of tokens, totaling a release value of over $300 million, among which:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 64.19 million tokens at 8:00 on December 1, worth about $216 million, accounting for 2.26% of the circulating supply;
Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens at 8:00 on November 30, worth about $68.32 million, accounting for 2.5% of the circulating supply;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 on November 29, worth about $42.41 million, accounting for 1.47% of the circulating supply;
1inch (1INCH) will unlock 9.874 million tokens at 20:00 on November 30, worth about $38.73 million, accounting for 7.72% of the circulating supply.
BTC: From the chart, Bitcoin's daily candle closed with a star line yesterday, which is a typical trend reversal signal, indicating that the market's long-short forces are tending to balance in the short term, with upward momentum weakening. The weekly chart closed with a large bullish candle, and the overall upward trend remains healthy. The MACD indicator shows a shortening of the bullish energy bars, and the KDJ is slightly dull at high levels, indicating that there may be a need for adjustment in the short term.
In summary, it is expected that in the short term, there may be fluctuations or a certain degree of correction. After adjustments, if energy recovery is completed, the possibility of another upward breakthrough cannot be ruled out. Due to Bitcoin's current adjustment pace, market attention may gradually shift towards Ethereum and other altcoins, and players should pay attention to the rebound opportunities of Ethereum and mainstream altcoins.
ETH: Ethereum's daily chart has closed with a spinning top, currently at the 5-day moving average position. Patience is required while waiting for the long-short ratio data to come down. Once the adjustment is complete, the market is expected to see a rebound!
Altcoins: Recently, the altcoin market may have quietly entered the eve of 'altcoin season'. Bitcoin's market share may be approaching a critical turning point. Once it falls back, the altcoin market will have opportunities for capital inflows and a comprehensive breakout. At present, most altcoins are still in the bottom area, suitable for accumulation, but patience is needed while waiting for the right market conditions to arrive.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 82 (Extreme Greed) #ETH市场新动向
