The probability that ADA Cardano will reach the price of $4 in 2025 looks like an intrigue for crypto lottery lovers. Optimistic forecasts by some analysts point to the potential for up to $8 per coin under ideal market conditions, while moderate estimates suggest $2.50-3.20. But in a more realistic scenario, given the current price (about $0.58) and average forecasts, the chance of reaching $4 is about 25-30%.

This depends on several factors: the success of the network updates, the general dynamics of the market (especially after the Bitcoin halving), as well as the sentiment of investors in the next bullrun. Even if the price goes up, Cardano will have to compete with new projects and attract institutional players, which is not an easy task.

So to me, it's a classic all-or-nothing bet, but with more of a slant towards nothing — especially if the crypto winter drags on longer than expected. The life of the crypt, as we can see, is still more like a casino than a stable market.​​​​