A few days ago, someone mentioned a term 'turkey scientist' in the comments.
Imagine there is a turkey living on a farm. Every morning, the farmer comes to feed it. This turkey is a clever 'turkey scientist', and it has been observing this phenomenon for a long time, say 100 days. So, this turkey concluded through observation, recording, and induction, a scientific law: 'Every morning, I will be fed, this is an unchanging law.'
Moreover, as time goes by, it becomes more and more convinced of this law, because its evidence (being fed every day) is continuously increasing. However, on the 101st day, the eve of Thanksgiving, what the farmer brought was not food, but a slaughter knife. At this moment, the turkey scientist's law was completely overturned.
The first time I encountered this term was in the book 'The Three-Body Problem'. It is indeed a very interesting concept; in real life, we often, like this turkey, induce general laws from limited observations and believe these laws to be absolutely correct. But in reality, we may just not have encountered the '101st day' that breaks this law.
These days, I was organizing my phone's photo album and came across a picture that I believe veteran cryptocurrency enthusiasts have seen. If you have not seen this picture, it means you have not fully experienced a 'bull-bear cycle' in the cryptocurrency world.
At its peak, it was said to step on Ethereum and punch Bitcoin. Indeed, during that time, EOS was extremely popular, coupled with endorsements from Teacher Li. Including the gameplay of EOS at that time, which lasted for 1 year of crowdfunding.
At that time, EOS was exchanged for Ethereum (ETH), and during that period (1 year), a large amount of Ethereum surged into the addresses of the EOS project team. It is commonly referred to as: Ethereum siphon. Some even said it would drain all Ethereum.
At the peak of EOS, 1 EOS = 178 RMB (it could have been higher). The reason I remember so clearly is that my friend bought a lot when it was at 178 RMB.
Now the EOS price, I don't want to check anymore, I can't afford to lose face. Moreover, I sold everything last year, and there is still one piece of clothing left at home that I bought in a certain EOS community at that time.
The price at that time was 0.8 EOS, which is approximately more than 90 RMB, and now it seems so cost-effective.
Those who shout that EOS will skyrocket, and those who today shout that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, $1 million, or even $10 million, are they all 'turkey scientists'? You need to think carefully about this.
You must know that 'the market is unpredictable', but I see many analysts' opinions and various analyses. It can basically be summarized as: the next step is that Bitcoin will soar to a peak of $100,000, or even $120,000, it's hard to say. Soon after, it will most likely drop or crash to $85,000.
After Bitcoin experiences a crash, it will start a new market. We will analyze that later. In short, those who can hold for 5 years are now buying at the bottom; those who cannot hold for 5 years should think it through.
Please note, this is not what I said; it is a summary of some Bitcoin analysts' opinions. Whether you believe it or not is your own business; I will just observe the changes.
An ordinary person who does not understand Bitcoin buys Bitcoin; they are still an ordinary person. If you don't understand this sentence, let me be blunt: a leek will not turn into a rose just because it is planted in a more beautiful garden.
