Mini Program: Daily Investment Bank/Institutional Opinion Summary

Abroad

1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to rise by 15% and 13% in 2025

Goldman Sachs' 2025 outlook report released on November 18 predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 15% and 13% in 2025, respectively, mainly benefiting from earnings growth per share and moderate valuation growth. From an industry perspective, Goldman Sachs advocates including the consumer sector in the investment portfolio and has upgraded the ratings of the healthcare and brokerage sectors. Additionally, Goldman Sachs believes that as the debt resolution plan takes effect, investments in public welfare and new infrastructure projects may accelerate, with a focus on the performance of consumption and infrastructure sectors. (China Securities Golden Bull)

2. Goldman Sachs: Expects Brent crude oil prices to rise to an average of $76 per barrel in 2025

Oil prices rise due to escalating geopolitical concerns. According to US officials, the US will allow Ukraine to use Western-made long-range weapons to strike targets within Russia. Market observers note that this raises concerns about oil supply, as Ukraine may target more oil infrastructure within Russia. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that despite a supply gap in 2024 and geopolitical uncertainties, Brent crude oil prices have fallen in recent weeks. They noted that this likely reflects market confidence in a significant oversupply in 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that based on valuation recovery and strategic inventory replenishment, Brent crude oil prices will rise to an average of $76 per barrel in 2025, peaking at $78 per barrel in June.

3. Morgan Stanley: The S&P 500 may reach 7400 points in a bull market next year

Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating on US stocks, expecting the S&P 500 index to have a target of 6500 points by the end of 2025, potentially reaching 7400 points in a bull market scenario next year. The firm believes that Fed rate cuts and earnings growth will continue to drive the market, while also expecting US Treasury yields to fall to 3.55% next year. Morgan Stanley mentioned that the US government's efficiency department, led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, may have a potentially positive impact on market sentiment by improving efficiency and reducing spending. Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Japanese stock market and has turned neutral on European stocks.

4. Citigroup: Expects no intervention before USD/JPY hits 160

Citigroup expects that if the USD/JPY exchange rate reaches the range of 160.00-165.00, the Japanese government may intervene to support the yen. The institution states that unless the USD/JPY exceeds 160.00, authorities are unlikely to intervene. If the USD/JPY breaks this threshold, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 0.5% in its December meeting will increase. In this case, senior officials at the Bank of Japan may start to send stronger signals to prepare the market for this move.

5. Barclays: The spread of euro high-yield bonds widened after the US election

Barclays analysts stated in a report that since the US election, the spread of euro-denominated high-yield bonds has moderately widened due to concerns about the potential impact of US trade policy on European economic growth. In contrast, since the election, the spreads of euro investment-grade bonds and US high-yield and investment-grade bonds have narrowed. Analysts also pointed out that the challenges facing the European automobile industry have also led to the underperformance of euro high-yield bonds compared to investment-grade bonds and their US counterparts.

6. Bank of America: Trump's tariff policy may lower commodity prices

Bank of America commodity strategist Francisco Blanch stated that Trump's vow to boost US manufacturing and create jobs through high tariffs may lead to a decline in commodity prices. "America First means commodities come second." While it is difficult to predict its impact, some experts warn that this strategy will drive up inflation. The Trump administration may also restore the issuance of liquefied natural gas export licenses. The biggest risk facing commodity prices comes from tariffs.

7. Nomura Securities: Expects the Fed to cut rates only twice next year, then pause until March 2026

Nomura Securities no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December policy meeting. This makes it the first global brokerage to suggest a Fed rate cut cycle after Trump's election victory. Nomura now expects the Fed to cut rates only twice more in March and June 2025, each by 25 basis points. The brokerage maintains its forecast for the Fed's federal funds rate at 4.125% before next year. Nomura expects that after a potential rate cut in June next year, the Fed will pause rate cuts until March 2026. The Fed's benchmark overnight rate is currently in the range of 4.50%-4.75%, having been lowered by 75 basis points so far this year. Meanwhile, other global brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, still expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next month.

Domestic

1. Everbright Securities: The Shanghai Composite Index shows signs of initial stabilization

Everbright Securities states that while the market is experiencing widespread declines, structurally, funds are shifting from high-position thematic hotspots to recently stagnant undervalued blue chips, showing initial stabilization signs for the Shanghai Composite Index; market style may continue to rotate and switch between hotspots.

2. CITIC Securities: Funds are hesitant and doubtful, resulting in a volatile slow bull market

On the morning of November 19, CITIC Securities Chief Strategist Chen Guo stated, "In a persistently sluggish market where investors lack a sense of gain, even with a significant turnaround, it may be a luxury to talk about the firmness of investor sentiment. Many funds inevitably have a quick in-and-out mentality, reacting with surprise. It takes time to adapt, and slowly it will change. What I see is that from policy to fundamentals, we are making progress and improving step by step, with funds hesitant and doubtful, resulting in a volatile slow bull market." (21st Century Business Herald)

3. CITIC Jian Investment: Supply-side optimization, suggest focusing on industries such as steel, photovoltaics, cement, coal, and rare earths

CITIC Securities points out that supply-side reform emphasizes high-quality economic development through the elimination of inefficient capacity, promoting resource optimization, and accelerating industrial upgrades at the macro level. The reform targets excessive capacity and inefficient production across various industries for deep adjustments, steadily improving supply-demand structures, and cultivating new momentum for economic growth through the guidance of new technology applications and green transformation, providing significant valuation recovery and profitability improvement space for leading enterprises in related industries. The comprehensive effects of the reform are reflected in improved industry efficiency, optimized market competition patterns, and the return of investment value in capital markets. Supply-side optimization suggests focusing on industries such as steel, photovoltaics, cement, coal, and rare earths.

4. CITIC Securities: Reducing export tax rebates benefits the long-term development of photovoltaics

CITIC Securities research report states that the reduction of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may cause a pulse impact on manufacturers' profits in the short term, but the actual impact is small. Additionally, leading manufacturers have strong capabilities to push products downstream to achieve price stabilization in the international photovoltaic market, avoid external competition, accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity in the industry, and achieve high-quality development, benefiting leading companies in strengthening long-term advantages. Key recommendations include leading photovoltaic cell component companies and core material suppliers that benefit from overseas photovoltaic manufacturing expansion and have leading overseas capacity layouts.

5. CITIC Securities: The CSRC officially released the market value management guidelines, focusing on high-quality central state-owned enterprises in the communications sector

CITIC Securities points out that on November 15, 2024, the CSRC officially released (Guideline No. 10 for listed company supervision - Market Value Management), promoting that the investment value of listed companies is reasonably reflected in the quality of listed companies. Optimistic about the long-term growth of high-quality central enterprises and their subsidiaries in the communication industry, high-quality central enterprises in the communication industry are expected to further strengthen market value management and improve shareholder returns through buybacks, increased holdings, and equity incentives.

6. CITIC Securities: Counter-cyclical adjustments and support policies for the stock market continue to be strengthened, firmly optimistic about investment opportunities in the chemical sector

CITIC Securities research report states that on November 15, the CSRC officially released (Guideline No. 10 for listed company supervision - Market Value Management), making specific requirements for major index constituent companies to establish market value management systems and disclose valuation enhancement plans for long-term companies with significant net asset deficits. Counter-cyclical adjustments and support policies for the stock market continue to be strengthened, firmly optimistic about investment opportunities in the chemical sector, and suggests focusing on: 1) Central enterprise reforms + beneficiaries of market value management; 2) Products with cost advantages for capacity expansion; 3) High-quality growth companies with marginal changes in the industry; 4) Directions of technological innovation.

Article reposted from: Jin Shi Data