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Macro News

1. Since the Ministry of Finance announced the "10 trillion +" debt reduction plan on November 8, governments in many places are accelerating the issuance of a new round of bonds to replace existing implicit debts. According to data from the China Bond Information Network, as of November 18, five provinces and cities, including Henan Province, Guizhou Province, Jiangsu Province, Dalian City and Qingdao City, have disclosed plans to issue special refinancing special bonds, with a total issuance amount of 224.4 billion yuan.

2. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of November 18, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 2771.70 points, up 9.7% from the previous period.

3. Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, visited and investigated the China Construction Technology Exhibition on November 18. Li Qiang said that it is necessary to combine improving people's livelihood with expanding domestic demand, strengthen cooperation in all aspects, promote planning innovation, improve standards and specifications, increase policy support for good housing construction, and do a good job in the renovation of old urban communities, urban villages and dilapidated houses to improve the living environment.

4. Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and other three departments issued a notice on the cancellation of the standard for ordinary housing. The standards for ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing in this city will be cancelled; the value-added tax on individual housing sales and the deed tax on individual housing purchases will be implemented in accordance with the relevant provisions of the (Announcement on Tax Policies to Promote the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market); the specific operating methods for enjoying the deed tax preferential policies in this city will still be implemented in accordance with the current regulations. This (Notice) will take effect on December 1, 2024.

5. Ali Hassan Khalil, a senior Lebanese politician, said that Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel and made "some comments" on the content. Lebanon submitted a written response to the US ceasefire proposal on Monday. The US ceasefire proposal is the most serious attempt to end the conflict so far.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.79% to $2,616.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.72% to $31.26 per ounce.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the December contract of U.S. crude up 3.23% to $69.08 per barrel, and the January 2025 contract of Brent crude up 3.05% to $73.21 per barrel.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 1.02% at $9,094.5/ton, LME zinc futures up 0.53% at $2,963/ton, LME nickel futures up 1.03% at $15,700/ton, LME aluminum futures down 1.47% at $2,610.5/ton, LME tin futures up 0.74% at $28,955/ton and LME lead futures up 2.12% at $1,998.5/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed higher collectively, with soybean futures up 1.15% at 1010 cents per bushel; corn futures up 1.24% at 429.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 1.91% at 546.75 cents per bushel.

5. Most of the main contracts of domestic futures night trading closed up, with paraxylene, rapeseed meal, PTA, styrene, and crude oil up more than 1%. In terms of decline, palm oil, caustic soda, and soybean oil fell more than 1%. Most base metals closed up, with Shanghai tin up 1.05%, Shanghai zinc up 0.73%, Shanghai nickel up 0.66%, stainless steel up 0.45%, Shanghai copper up 0.27%, Shanghai lead up 0.21%, and Shanghai aluminum down 0.34%. Shanghai gold rose 1.27%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.49%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, the total iron ore shipments from Australia to Brazil from November 11 to November 17, 2024 were 25.588 million tons, a decrease of 853,000 tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 17.226 million tons, a decrease of 2.249 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 14.357 million tons, a decrease of 1.446 million tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 8.362 million tons, an increase of 1.397 million tons from the previous month.

2. From November 11 to November 17, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 29.059 million tons, an increase of 4.157 million tons month-on-month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 27.82 million tons, an increase of 4.550 million tons month-on-month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at six northern ports was 14.97 million tons, an increase of 2.670 million tons month-on-month.

3. The market continues to pay attention to the winter storage situation. Currently, 93.62% of steel mills have not signed agreements with traders for next year, and only 6.38% of steel mills and traders have signed agreements; in terms of traders' psychological prices, the psychological price below 3,100 yuan/ton still accounts for the largest proportion, about 42.67%, an increase of 6.67 percentage points compared with the first month-on-month increase.

4. On November 18, steel mills in Hebei and Shandong markets reduced the purchasing price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on the 18th.

5. Shagang Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform on November 18 that the company currently has no winter storage policy, and the company's inventory is the circulating inventory in normal production and sales.

6. Shanxi Jianlong shut down all its construction steel rolling lines on November 18, with one rebar production line scheduled to be shut down for 45 days, another rebar production line scheduled to be shut down for 10 days, and one coil production line scheduled to be shut down until early 2025. The current production of building materials affected is 10,000 tons/day.

7. According to SMM, Hesteel Group's second round of inquiries for silicon manganese in November was 6,200 yuan/ton, the first round of inquiries was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the October silicon manganese price was 6,200 yuan/ton. (The price in November 2023 is 6,730 yuan/ton).

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, in the first half of November, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 5.61 million tons. It is expected that the weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills will be more than 1.8 million tons in the next two weeks, and the total soybean crushing volume of oil mills in November will be around 9 million tons. Pay attention to the subsequent oil mill operating rate and soybean import arrival.

2. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of November 13, the national live pig output price was 17.32 yuan/kg, down 2.42% from November 6; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.28 yuan/kg, unchanged from November 6; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 7.60, down 2.44% from November 6.

3. Indonesia is planning to review the way it sets palm oil export taxes to stay competitive with rival edible oils, officials said on Monday, describing it as a routine move to regularly assess its trade policy. Dida, a senior official at the Coordinating Economic Ministry, said authorities will review policies every three to six months, stressing that they may choose to keep them unchanged.

4. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's palm oil imports in October were 250,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51.3%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.9%. China's soybean oil imports in October were 20,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 270,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%.

5. According to Mysteel, as of November 15, the total domestic inventory of logs by material was 2.65 million cubic meters, an increase of 30,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.1%; the inventory of radiata pine was 2.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a weekly increase of 3.5%.

6. As of November 15, 2024, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key areas across the country was 1.0781 million tons, a decrease of 23,100 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.10%. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 531,100 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.43%; a decrease of 468,900 tons from 1 million tons last year, a decrease of 46.89%.

7. According to the China Feed Industry Association, in October 2024, the national industrial feed output was 27.42 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% from the previous month and a decrease of 5.4% from the previous year. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed companies was 39.3%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year; the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.

8. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) showed that from November 1 to 15, 2024, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 0.19%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.13%, and output increased by 0.87%.

9. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said on Monday that Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to remain above 4,750 ringgit per ton in November, supported by uncertainty in export supply and rising soft oil prices. Despite the price increase, palm oil demand is expected to remain stable in November, driven by the upcoming Chinese New Year and Ramadan celebrations.

10. According to Wind data, as of November 18, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.66197 million tons, and on November 11 it was 7.64879 million tons, an increase of 113,180 tons from the previous month.

11. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported the sale of 261,264 tons of soybeans to Mexico, 30,000 tons of soybean oil to India, and 135,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines, all for delivery in 2024/2025. The U.S. soybean year began on September 1.

12. According to foreign media reports, agricultural consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean planting progress in 2024/25 had reached 80% of the expected planting area, an increase of 13% from the previous week and 68% in the same period last year.

13. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that as of the week of November 14, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 2,165,075 tons; the United States shipped 1,390,057 tons of soybeans to China (mainland).

14. According to CONAB, the national commodity supply company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 17, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 73.84%, 66.1% last week, and 65.41% in the same period last year.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. The latest ANRPC report for October 2024 predicts that global natural rubber production is expected to drop by 2.1% to 1.366 million tons in October, an increase of 1.3% from the previous month, and production in the first 10 months is expected to increase by 2.8% to 11.274 million tons; natural rubber consumption is expected to drop by 8.5% to 1.138 million tons in October, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month, and is expected to drop by 4.2% to 12.107 million tons in the first 10 months.

2. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's rubber tire exports in October were 800,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. The cumulative exports from January to October were 7.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; China's urea exports in October were 0 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99.4%. The cumulative exports from January to October were 260,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 92.4%.

3. Equinor, a spokesman for the Norwegian national oil company, Gisle, said that Equinor stopped production at the Johan Sverdrup oil field in the North Sea after an onshore power outage.

Metal Hot News

1. According to data from Mysteel, China's industrial silicon output in October was 439,843 tons, down 4.22% from 459,213 tons in September. Xinjiang's output was 210,769 tons, up 1.3% from the previous month. Sichuan's output was 51,194 tons, down 8.30% from the previous month. Yunnan's output was 82,094 tons, down 22.56% from the previous month.

2. As of Monday this week, SMM statistics show that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 563,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory in Wuxi area has dropped significantly, down 10,000 tons from last Thursday to around 170,000 tons. Some railway cargo arrived in Gongyi area over the weekend, an increase of about 12,000 tons from last Thursday.

3. According to the production statistics of 53 zinc smelters in China (involving a production capacity of 6.99 million tons), Antaike's zinc and zinc alloy production of sample enterprises from January to October 2024 was 4.732 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The monthly output in October was 470,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, an increase of nearly 16,000 tons from the previous month, and an average daily output increase of 0.1% from the previous month. It is estimated that the output of refined zinc in November will decrease by 8,500 tons from the previous month to 461,000 tons, and the daily average will increase by 1.4% from the previous month.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. The negative sentiment brought about by events such as the UCO tax refund has caused a correction in palm oil prices. Can we still go long in the future?

Dadi Futures analysis pointed out that in the short term, under the influence of negative expectations for renewable energy, UCO tax refunds and other events, coupled with Malaysia's good production in the first 15 days and the seasonal decline in the increase in demand countries. Palm oil prices lack drivers in the short term, and the negative emotions brought by the events may cause palm oil prices to fall back. The China-Canada tariff issue on rapeseed is currently not going smoothly; with the deepening of global rapeseed and sunflower production cuts, it itself has good support for prices and far-month spreads. The fundamentals of palm oil have not clearly improved, and the idea of ​​​​buying long far-month oil on a pullback is still maintained; rapeseed oil is recommended to go long on the 5-9 month spread.

2. The spot gold price has fallen nearly 10% from its peak. Has it fallen out of the gold pit or has the gold price peaked?

Zijin Tianfeng Futures analysis pointed out that since the dust settled on the US presidential election in early November, the London spot gold price has fallen nearly 10% from its peak. Looking back at history, the main driving factors for gold prices to reach their peak include: 1. The strong recovery of economic activities and the threat of oil prices prompted the Federal Reserve to start a tightening cycle and adopt a tight monetary policy (such as the situation in September 1980); 2. The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit (such as the situation in September 2012). For the current market, the Federal Reserve has just implemented a sharp interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September. If there is a bump in the downward trend of inflation, the most it may do is to suspend interest rate cuts, and the possibility of raising interest rates is extremely small. In addition, among the media's speculations about Trump's new Treasury Secretary candidates, none of them fits the hawkish background of "financial consolidation". Therefore, we believe that the recent decline in gold prices is only a short-term fluctuation and will not constitute a long-term trend.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 09:00 on November 20, China’s one-year and five-year loan market benchmark rates until November 20 were announced. Mingming, an analyst at CITIC Securities, said that in the context of a possible weak exchange rate, it is necessary to balance the moderate interest rate cuts at home and abroad, and at the same time further improve the monetary policy framework, especially to further play the interest rate regulation function. There is room for downward adjustment of the policy interest rate, LPR, and deposit interest rate.

2. November 20th is to be determined. Malaysia’s ITS/AmSpec/SGS palm oil export data as of November 20th will be released. Previously, Malaysia’s palm oil exports in the first half of November only decreased to varying degrees month-on-month. Palm oil futures also fell. In the short term, we will pay attention to the November inventory expectations of palm oil.

3. At 18:00 on November 20, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) announced the global and Chinese primary aluminum production in October. Previous data showed that global primary aluminum production in September was 6.007 million tons and China's primary aluminum production was 3.595 million tons. Pay attention to the changes in this data.

4. November 20th is to be determined. WBMS will release the September global metal supply and demand report. Previously, the global WBMS nickel market had a supply surplus of 4,600 tons in August, a shortage of 183,400 tons of refined aluminum, and a shortage of 64,400 tons of copper. Pay attention to the changes in supply and demand this time.

5. On November 20, a new round of price adjustment will be launched for domestic refined oil products. According to institutional analysis, combined with the current international oil price trend, the adjustment trend of domestic oil prices is not clear. Although international oil prices have rebounded, the increase has not yet reached the threshold for domestic oil price increases, so this round of oil price adjustments may be temporarily shelved.

6. November 20th is to be determined. The 2024 Urea Futures Conference will be held in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The conference will invite relevant national business authorities and senior urea futures researchers to introduce the current operation of urea futures and spot markets, and focus on aspects such as urea futures analysis and forecasting.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data