Alumina futures prices have recently retreated from their highs, with the Alumina 2501 contract experiencing the largest correction of more than 5% from its recent high of 5477. As of 10:15 a.m. on November 18, it had risen by 0.52% and was quoted at 5,235 yuan/ton.
Alumina Market Monitoring Tool - Market Conditions
News
According to the announcement of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on November 15, 2024, the export tax rebate for aluminum, copper, and chemically modified animal, plant or microbial oils and fats will be cancelled. This announcement will take effect from December 1, 2024.
In this regard, CITIC Securities Futures Analysis said that the fundamentals of alumina are still strong, but the export tax rebate policy puts pressure on aluminum prices, and the aluminum industry's losses are expanding, which is bearish for alumina, and forward contracts will weaken again. The downstream electrolytic aluminum supply side will face the pressure of aluminum product outflow due to the improvement of Xinjiang's shipments. At the same time, the export orders of the consumer side after December will be significantly affected. It is not ruled out that some small and medium-sized export enterprises will reduce production, and processing enterprises will face the impact of the Spring Festival holiday at the end of December. The subsequent fundamentals will gradually weaken.
We can use the Alumina Market Monitoring Tool - Major Events Function (try it now) to keep an eye on changes in the news.
Alumina Market Watcher - Big Events
Fundamentals
According to a research report by Dayue Futures, bauxite imports have been significantly reduced due to overseas news disturbances. In addition, domestic alumina inventories are lower than the average range of the past five years and are still in a destocking trend, indicating that the supply of alumina is insufficient and the supply and demand pattern may be tight in the near future.
Source: Wind, Dayue Futures
Source: Wind, Dayue Futures
According to Mysteel's survey, as of November 14, the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.69%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last week. Recently, some alumina plants have completed production cuts and maintenance, and have now resumed full production, involving a capacity of 1.3 million tons/year. However, due to environmental protection and insufficient ore supply, some alumina plants in the north have successively reduced production, involving a capacity of about 400,000 tons/year, and the scale of production cuts may be further expanded. It is expected that there will be a risk of a decline in alumina capacity utilization next week. Environmental protection inspections in some northern regions will be tightened, and some alumina plants may be forced to reduce or suppress production. This shows that there may be further reductions in the supply of alumina.
As for downstream electrolytic aluminum, according to Huatai Futures, as the US dollar index hit a new high this year, aluminum futures have been under pressure and continued to fall. Recently, due to environmental protection and cost factors, some electrolytic aluminum plants in Henan and Guangxi have stopped production and reduced production, with a total stoppage of about 50,000 tons. Another electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi plans to carry out technical transformation and maintenance at the end of the year, involving a production capacity of about 100,000 tons. The start-up of domestic aluminum downstream has declined slightly, and environmental protection control in the north still exists, affecting the start-up of some downstream enterprises.
We can use the Platts Alumina Price (try now) tool to continuously monitor the changes in the Australian alumina FOB price and the Chinese alumina ex-factory price. The data shows that both prices are on an upward trend and there is still no sign of a correction, indicating that the supply and demand pattern of alumina may be tightening.
Alumina Market Monitoring Tool - Platts Alumina Price
Alumina Market Monitoring Tool - Platts Alumina Price
In addition, the alumina market monitoring tool - seasonal analysis of positions (click the link to experience) shows that the positions of alumina 2501 contracts are higher than the historical level for the same period and may continue to rise. If the positions remain high near the delivery month, beware of the risks brought about by extreme market trends or sharp fluctuations.
Alumina Market Monitoring Tool - Seasonal Analysis of Positions
Institutional Views
Guohai Liangshi Futures: From a long-term perspective, the mine side, supply side, and demand side can all reflect that the fundamentals of alumina are tight. The problem of mines is still the main factor in this round of speculation. The reduction in supply and the increase in demand drive the price of alumina upward. We believe that there will be a correction in this round of market, but it will not be deep, and the strong trend can be seen at least before the Spring Festival.
Zhonghui Futures: Alumina is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The overseas Guinea bauxite shipments are disturbed and increased at the same time, and may recover after the rainy season subsides; winter has arrived in northern China, and the supply of alumina is affected by the production restrictions and maintenance during the heating season. The tight supply at the mine end still restricts the increase in alumina production capacity. In terms of inventory, the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants has rebounded recently. In the short term, the current alumina supply and demand structure is slightly linked, and attention should be paid to changes in the bauxite end.
Yide Futures: The tight supply of alumina remains, overseas transaction prices continue to rise, the export window is open, and there are many disturbances in the domestic heating season; the profits of alumina enterprises are high, but the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises have turned negative, which may limit the upward space of alumina. Downstream, the domestic aluminum export tax rebate has been cancelled, but overseas demand is still large, and the price gap between domestic weak and foreign strong needs to be expanded to give export profits. There will also be a rush to export in the short term, and the demand may be limited.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data