Hot topics of Master Chat:
I had a toothache for two days, and I stopped working at the dentist for three days. Even though the pain was unbearable, I chose to temporarily avoid the market because I couldn't stand it at all.
Today, I took a brief look at the market in recent days. It really makes me feel like I traveled back to September to the end of October last year. The storyline at that time was also about repeated inflation and the market's illusion that interest rate hikes were over.
U.S. Treasury bonds are in a precarious situation, with the 10-year yield rising to 5%; the U.S. dollar index has surged to 106.8; the Nasdaq has fallen to a level that makes people question their lives (a 15% drop); in contrast, Bitcoin has become the king of rebounds, soaring from 24,000 to 33,000.
Until now, although the plot has changed a bit, the core remains the same: inflation has fluctuated slightly, and the "interest rate cut dream" has been postponed; US bonds continue to jump up and down, and the market continues to wait and see with helplessness.
Speaking of Bitcoin and US stocks, their relationship is like two good brothers at a drinking table. They usually drink equally hard, but they sway at critical moments. Especially after a long period of shock adjustment, this "different frequency" is more obvious.
From April to September last year, Bitcoin took off against the market trend after a five-month slack period. This year, Bitcoin has been adjusting for even longer, more than six months of practice, as if to say: Hold on, I'm preparing a big move.
So the question is, will history repeat itself? Just like the owner of the kebab stand who asks you from time to time: Do you want another serving? At present, Bitcoin may really have a bit of the flavor of last year: US stocks have been falling, and market sentiment has been jumping back and forth between "Hey, why haven't you cut interest rates yet" and "Wow, inflation is coming again."
Bitcoin has found a wave of counter-trend, but just like last year, it depends on whether the liquidity and market sentiment are strong enough. If it is really reproduced, then sit back and watch Bitcoin perform a one-on-one show; if it is not reproduced, at least it is a suspense film, and we retail investors will not lose!
Speaking of the current Bitcoin, 100,000 is the psychological Mount Everest of Bitcoin. There is only one chance to cross it in a lifetime, so how can it be passed easily? After all, such an important hurdle, the main force and the dog dealer must do enough work and create enough momentum.
When both internal and external factors are adjusted to shock mode, macro and micro factors work together to resonate, and the moment of reaching the top will not appear hasty. The longer you keep it, the more stable it will be, just like making chicken soup. If the heat is not enough, the taste will be bad, and rushing up too quickly will overdraw your stamina.
If it reaches 100,000 now, how will it perform in the future? Several technical indicators have already slightly diverged. If we force it now, it will only squeeze out the future space. In addition, today is Sunday and the market sentiment is still in the weekend mode. The specific trend will depend on the performance of next week.
Bullish sentiment is not like a power bank, it can't last for two weeks. A pullback in the next step is more beneficial to the market, and only by stabilizing the position can we accumulate strength. Another scenario is the Buddhist way of rising: take small steps and move up slowly, walk more steadily, and look further.
Although there is a lot of incremental funds in this wave of bulls, don’t forget that it took a whole month for Bitcoin to rise from 32,000 to 38,000 in October last year. If it weren’t for the ETF extension, it would have exploded earlier.
Even if the price rises in small steps this time, we have to give altcoins a chance, otherwise those friends will cry out: "Bitcoin, you are too unethical!" In summary, there is no need to rush to the 100,000 drama. The market will stabilize when it should be stabilized, and the main force and the dog dealer will perform the best performance in history when the market and the outside world cooperate well.
Master looks at the trend:
After reaching a high of 93,000, Bitcoin's rise slowed down due to the Fed's remarks that it ruled out the possibility of a rate cut. A downward trend is currently forming, and the possibility of adjustment has increased compared to before. It is recommended to pay attention to the price fluctuations within the box range and refer to historical highs and lows as support and resistance.
Simply based on the 60-day and 120-day moving average trends, you can flexibly adjust your positions through real-time chart analysis.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 90300
Second resistance level: 91500
Support level reference:
First support level: 89500
Second support level: 88400
Today's suggestion:
Even if it breaks through 90.3K today, due to the existence of a downward trend line, we need to focus on whether the trading volume increases simultaneously, and at the same time observe whether it breaks through the trend line and completes the backtest of trend reversal.
If it falls below the first support again, it will enter an area where the downward trend intensifies. At this time, the 120-day moving average and the first support level can be regarded as the current important support area.
After the 120-day moving average formed a lower shadow, there was a slight rebound. At present, it needs to stand firm on the 60-day moving average before it is possible to break through 90K again. Once it falls below the 120-day moving average, it is necessary to pay attention to the space below the 88K range.
You can temporarily maintain the rebound view within the day, but you can also consider trying short positions within a certain rebound range and flexibly adjust your trading strategy. Pay attention to the risk of selling for profit, be alert to possible adjustments in overheated markets, and don't blindly be bullish. Look at the market objectively and trade rationally.
11.17 Master band pre-embedded:
Long entry reference: 87000 light long position. If it falls back to around 86300, continue to buy. Target: 88400-89500
Short entry reference: 93300-93500 range short target: 91500-90300
