After the big rise, the market entered a tense state. It seems that it has fallen into an awkward situation where all the good news has been exhausted. Whether it can break through the 100,000 mark has become the biggest focus of the market! The copycats take turns to exert their strength, and a hundred flowers bloom. The day before yesterday, Squirrel Coin PUNT exerted its strength and was listed on the Korean exchange. The single-day increase exceeded 300%. The market continues to heat up, some people are free, and some people suffer!
At the same time, the bullish sentiment in the futures and options markets is high, and the funding rate is abnormal. Even at such a high level, the rate is still positive. If the data is true, many people will face liquidation. This time, not only the options and futures markets, but also a large number of borrowings will face liquidation. Everyone still remembers that during the last large-scale liquidation, many large investors had to sell assets to repay their debts. It was an earthquake in the financial market, and many investors suffered heavy losses.
Has the market peaked in the short term?
- Regarding BTC ETF. Although the ETF has seen an outflow of more than $400 million since yesterday (November 14), this outflow is not large compared to the inflow in the past few days. Please continue to observe and pay attention to the changes in this data.
- BTC Funding Rate. BTC Funding Rate has been at a relatively low level since it broke through $800 million. This seems to indicate that people’s demand for BTC purchases has not really reached a high point in sentiment. Usually, the end of a bull market is often accompanied by Perps.
Altcoins’ current performance:
At present, ETH and some blue-chip copycat projects have not reached ATH. Even SOL, which is very popular in this cycle, is still 14% away from ATH. As for ETH, it is even worse, with a distance of 31% from ATH.
At this stage, apart from BTC, almost everyone's attention is focused on various MemeCoins, but I personally still belong to the traditional school. Compared with the current popularity of various MemeCoins, I am still more optimistic about the development of ETH. I believe that ETH will definitely break through ATH, and if we wait until that day, then what may follow may be the rotation opportunities of some altcoin sectors.
From historical experience, once BTC rises to a certain level and stabilizes, some altcoins will definitely have new opportunities for growth, because the underlying investment logic remains unchanged, that is, investors will always chase things with greater growth potential.
When will the altcoin market come?
At present, our expectation is that we have to wait for Bitcoin to stabilize first, whether BTC directly breaks through $100,000 or $150,000. Only after BTC stabilizes, the altcoin market can start. During this process, it is estimated that MemeCoin will still be the performance stage, and various stories of getting rich overnight may become popular and spread, attracting more and more retail investors to pay attention to and join this field.
How long can the meme last?
Memes on BN have high certainty and low odds, while memes on the chain have low certainty and high odds. Ten times or a hundred times the value is basically from the chain.
For me personally, I dare to bet on memes on BN, but not on memes on the chain. I don’t need to monitor the information on BN’s memes every day. If I have a good layout, I can get the average increase of the meme track, which can be used as my basic meme track. I will try the memes on the chain. The reason is: new things all come from the chain, playing with the chain to get familiar with it will pave the way for catching opportunities in the future.
Old memes without stories will be eliminated
There are so many new memes, I don’t know how to choose
New memes, small in number, high market popularity, and significant short-term wealth effects
How to grasp market sentiment and exit quickly:
1) Emotionally: Everyone who was touched got on board and left
2) Funding: Funds began to flow out to other tracks and leave the market
3) Story: New stories emerge in other tracks and leave
4) Time: The track is basically coming to an end after 3 months of climax, and you should leave
Summarize:
The location of funds has basically not changed, mainly memes. However, the decline list is also full of memes. The memes have risen too sharply in the past two days. Many large-cap memes on BN have risen by 50% in one day. There is a bit of fomo in sentiment, which will not cool down the market correction.
