The US October CPI is already known, which is consistent with what we (Global Markets Strategy) predicted on the same day, namely, "We expect the CPI data to be in line with market expectations to a relatively high extent."

How to interpret. $BTC

1. The market gave a reasonable evaluation: This data will not affect the interest rate cut in December. After the data was released, the market's probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December increased from 55% to 80%.

But from the details of the data, we see signs of stagnation in inflation. The core CPI rose steadily at 3.3% in October, the same level since June, and only briefly fell to 3.2% in July. If not rounded, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI in October actually rose from 3.26% to 3.3%. In other words, we see that the published data is only accurate to one decimal place, and the actual inflation data is rising.

2. The trend of the US dollar and gold is not synchronized with the rising probability of a rate cut in December. After the data was released, the US dollar index rose sharply, setting a new high for this round of trend. Gold continued to fall and has moved away from $2,600. Since peaking on October 31, the price of gold has plummeted by more than $200.

Ordinary investors are concerned about whether there will be a rate cut in December, while Wall Street is focusing on the possibility of a consecutive rate cut in the next two meetings. Gold and the US dollar have keenly captured these changes. Compared with the current pace of rate cuts at each meeting, this is a more gradual schedule.

3. Of course, the final right of interpretation belongs to the Federal Reserve, because it is the Federal Reserve that ultimately makes the decision to cut interest rates.

Four Fed officials gave speeches last night, giving different interpretations of the inflation data.

The result was 3:1, with 3 people giving negative interpretations and 1 person giving a positive interpretation.

The person who gave a positive interpretation is curious, it is Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, who has appeared twice and has previously delivered hawkish speeches. But he said last night that he could not see any factors in today's data that are unfavorable to a rate cut in December.

The other three Fed officials all responded with cautious rate cuts:

Dallas Fed President Logan said further rate cuts should be made with caution to avoid inadvertently reigniting inflation.

St. Louis Fed President Moussallem said October's CPI data showed that core inflation remained high and a "moderately restrictive" policy was appropriate.

Kansas City Fed President Schmid said he was not sure how much lower interest rates should be, although it was time to start cutting them.

Especially, Musallem's phrase "moderately restrictive" was the first time the Fed said it, and many people don't understand the meaning of these five words. When you really understand them, it has become the "price". Previously, most of the Fed officials' statements were to reduce the interest rate to the "neutral interest rate", which means that the Fed's current round of interest rate cuts will be higher than previously expected.

Although the Federal Reserve does not admit that its decisions will be influenced by Trump, the sudden shift of focus to inflation (previously the focus was on employment and the economy), and the personal sounding of the alarm, shows that there are many variables.

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