Inflation has returned to the forefront of Federal Reserve watchers' minds as they assess the future path of U.S. interest rates.
Financial markets are unusually dull, paving the way for the release of US CPI tonight. $BTC $ETH
Asia-Pacific stock markets fell, and last night the US stock market fell for the first time since the US election day, which scared investors. Although the decline was not large, it still sounded the alarm for the market.
The market's focus now turns to the US October CPI data, which will be released at 21:30 Beijing time.
Judging from the speeches of two Fed officials last night, the answer for tonight seems to be revealed, that is, there is a high possibility that the CPI data will meet or slightly exceed market expectations.
Both officials hinted at concerns about inflation to varying degrees:
* Richmond Fed President Barkin said he is considering two economic scenarios: Businesses could start investing and hiring again as election uncertainty fades, allowing the Fed to focus on upside risks to inflation. Or companies could respond to lower profit margins from weakened pricing power by laying off workers, which would increase employment risks facing the Fed.
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he would focus on the upcoming inflation data to determine whether it would be appropriate to cut interest rates again at the Fed's December meeting. Only higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a pause in interest rate cuts in December.
Before the release of major data, the market usually has leaks, and the Federal Reserve will let the market digest some of the news in advance.
The Fed's logic has always been to make relevant speeches before the data is released. The impact of its speeches on the market is consistent with the economic data to be released, so that the market will be prepared and will not panic when the data is actually released. For example, if the Fed learns that the economic data will cause the market to fall by 100 points, it may make the market fall by 50 points through speeches, and when the data is released, the market will only have 50 points of room to fall. In other words, the market will digest the 100-point drop over several days, which is the root cause of the long-lasting bull market in the US stock market.
Of course, the above are just some guesses based on what we know about the Federal Reserve, and we still have to wait for the data tonight to be released. But we should not be too comfortable with the current inflation and interest rate trajectory in the United States.
Note: Traders estimate that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points in December is only slightly higher than 50%. Many people missed the process from nearly 100% to the current drop to 50%. #马斯克将领导美国政府效率部 #比特币搜索热度攀升 #加密货币总市值破3万亿美元 #BTC何时破9万？ #市场倒车ing你有购物清单吗？
