Nature: This is a time-advanced analysis report and is not suitable for short-term reference.
Setting the tone: The 93,000 yuan bitcoin is not necessarily the highest point, but the space in the future market is extremely limited. Even if the bitcoin reaches a new high, most varieties will no longer have new highs. Now it is the tail of the bull market. The risks are greater than the benefits, especially for those who have heavy positions in spot copycat products. The risks are extremely high.
reason:
1: Monthly cycle
This round of bull market started in November 2022. From the perspective of wave structure, it is currently in the fifth wave of the monthly line, which is also the last wave. Generally speaking, the rise time of the fifth wave is shorter than that of the third wave. The third wave of the monthly line of this round of bull market rose for 7 months. This high point will most likely appear in the fourth or fifth month. Even if it appears in the fifth month (December 2024), it will be at the beginning of the month. Therefore, from the perspective of time, the conditions for the bull tail are now met.
2: USDT.D Reference
This signal is a reverse indicator of Bitcoin's trend, and the trend is completely opposite. According to the monthly trend of this signal, the current pullback position is close to the monthly trend line. It is highly likely that a monthly cycle rise will occur at this position, and Bitcoin is very likely to experience a monthly cycle pullback.
This trend line is formed by connecting the low points in April and November 2021 and March this year, and it is not easy to break. At present, the signal has experienced two retracements in the four-hour cycle, and rebounded strongly during the second retracement, indicating that the signal bulls have a strong willingness to resist, and the corresponding Bitcoin is the bears gathering strength above.
3: The morphological structure performance in the last three days
On the 12th and 13th, Bitcoin fell back to the four-hour lifeline twice, and then hit a new high, but after the new high, the price was obviously unstable and stayed for a short time, which was a sign of loose chips. When it fell back to the four-hour lifeline again, it was very easy to fall below it.
The above three points are objective facts that are currently visible to the naked eye.
4: External factors
Many people pin their hopes on the Fed’s rate cuts, but may have overlooked the Bank of Japan’s rate hikes. The Japanese yen accounts for more than 30% of the global foreign exchange market, and all previous world economic crises occurred after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates twice. The Fed’s rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a bull market. If a bull market is certain to happen, then when the Fed raises interest rates in 2023, Bitcoin should not have seen a seven-month bull market.
About abnormal sound
There are many reports saying that Bitcoin will become a strategic reserve for most countries. Yiming agrees with this view. But this has nothing to do with the transactions of most retail investors.
The strategic reserves of any country have a cycle of more than five to ten years, and most retail investors are speculators who do not have the patience to hold positions on a monthly basis.
The country's reserves are also Bitcoin, not full of copycat stocks. There is an essential difference between speculation and investment. Gold is a strategic reserve material for all countries, and it is not said that it will only rise and not fall. There are also bear markets, which are determined by the cycle.
Therefore, for the vast majority of retail investors, they cannot use the slogan of strategic reserves as the basis for their speculative trading, as this is confusing the concepts.
Suggestions for future operations
Spot only does subtraction, not addition. If any variety falls below the four-hour lifeline,
Everyone has to get off, regardless of your profit or loss. Most of those who missed the last chance to get off in November 2021 will never get their money back in their lifetime. Don't think that spot is risk-free. Although spot will not explode, it can still fall by more than 90%, which is no different from a explosion.
As for the big prices predicted by the market such as 100,000, 120,000, 150,000, 200,000, etc., these are all price guesses without basis. If you use these as the basis for opening a position, it is like playing with your own funds as happy beans. You must use objective facts to analyze and judge.
Writing this report requires courage and may be criticized, but from a professional perspective, Yiming is willing to take the risk and tell the truth. Because at this time, most people are still immersed in the joy of the bull market, dreaming of getting rich, and even fantasizing about how to spend the money after making it. They don’t think about it at all and don’t see the existence of risks. But the trading market itself is a practice. You must keep a clear mind when it is crowded and buy quietly when no one cares. This is the highest realm of the trading market.
