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Macro News

1. According to CCTV News, with the approval of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, in accordance with the (National Holidays and Memorial Day Holidays Regulations) revised in November 2024, starting from January 1, 2025, the number of holidays for all citizens will be increased by 2 days, including 1 day each for the Spring Festival and Labor Day.

2. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on November 12, 2024, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office, co-chaired the 19th round of China-Russia strategic security consultations with Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Security Council, in Beijing. They had a comprehensive and in-depth exchange of views on major strategic security issues of common concern, reached new consensus, and enhanced strategic mutual trust.

3. According to foreign media reports, on the 12th local time, Israel's new Defense Minister Katz said that Israel will not cease fire in Lebanon and will not give Hezbollah a chance to breathe before its goals are achieved. Katz said that Israel will ensure that Hezbollah's armed capabilities are disarmed and that residents in northern Israel can return home safely.

4. According to the Securities Times, the Henan Provincial Department of Finance issued a notice on the issuance of the 2024 Henan Provincial Government Refinancing General Bonds (fifth phase) and the Refinancing Special Bonds (eleventh phase) and plans to issue the 2024 Henan Provincial Government Refinancing General Bonds (fifth phase) and the Refinancing Special Bonds (eleventh phase) on November 15. The relevant information disclosure documents show that the proposed issuance of the refinancing special bonds (eleventh phase) of 31.8169 billion yuan will be used to "replace the existing implicit debt."

5. He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, said on the 12th that China is continuing to deepen capital market reform, steadily expanding institutional opening up in the financial field, and focusing on providing high-quality financial services for economic and social development. He welcomes companies from all countries to continue to deepen investment and cooperation in China to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

6. Fed Open Market Account Manager Perri said there is still strong evidence that reserve levels remain adequate. There is no imminent sign that the Fed needs to implement monetary policy (regarding the balance sheet).

7. According to the Securities Times, in the last two months of this year, the financial department will take multiple measures to supplement financial resources, ensure various key expenditures, and strive to complete the annual budget target. Experts and scholars believe that the incremental fiscal policy to support the real estate market is "on the verge of being launched", and it is possible to start issuing land storage bonds within the year, and relevant tax policies to support the real estate market are also expected to be introduced in the near future.

8. Fed's Kashkari said the strong labor market is "encouraging" and the economy looks to be in a strong position. If inflation unexpectedly rises before December, this could give us pause on rate cuts.

Global futures market changes

1. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.5% to $2,604.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.69% to $30.825 per ounce.

2. International oil prices fell slightly, with the December contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.1% to $67.97 per barrel, and the January contract of Brent crude oil falling 0.11% to $71.75 per barrel.

3. Most of the base metals in London closed lower, with LME copper futures down 2% to $9,144.5/ton, LME zinc futures down 1.09% to $2,946.5/ton, LME nickel futures down 0.76% to $15,985/ton, LME aluminum futures down 0.83% to $2,565/ton, LME tin futures down 3.45% to $30,200/ton and LME lead futures up 0.1% to $2,024/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.98% to 1012.25 cents per bushel; corn futures down 0.23% to 429 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 2.12% to 553.5 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher at night trading, with energy and chemical products generally rising, fuel oil up 1.93%, soda ash up 1.55%, pulp up 0.97%, asphalt up nearly 1%, No. 20 rubber down 2.15%, and crude oil up 0.71%. Black series rose across the board. Most agricultural products fell, rapeseed oil down 2.77%, soybean oil down 2.13%, soybean No. 1 down 1.37%, rapeseed meal down 1.31%, soybean No. 2 down 1.21%. Most base metals closed lower, Shanghai tin down 2.27%, Shanghai copper down 1.46%, Shanghai nickel down 1.23%, Shanghai aluminum down 1.02%, Shanghai zinc down 0.64%, stainless steel down 0.56%, and Shanghai lead up 1.12%. Shanghai gold fell 0.63%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.09%.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, satellite data show that from November 4 to November 10, 2024, the total iron ore inventory in seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.91 million tons, an increase of 897,000 tons from the previous month. The current absolute inventory volume is at the second highest point since the fourth quarter.

2. According to Mysteel, Mysteel statistics on Monday this week showed that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China was 157.826 million tons, a decrease of 1.567 million tons from last Monday.

3. Recently, a reporter from China Securities Taurus conducted an on-site visit to the second-hand housing market in Beijing and found that at present, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in many areas of Beijing is quite considerable, and the overall price has not changed much. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing returned to above the "prosperity and decline line" of 15,000 units in October. At present, the number of listings in Beijing has dropped to less than 151,000 units, setting a new low in recent years.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. Safras & Mercado said in a report that Brazil's pre-sales for the 2024/25 soybean crop, which is currently being planted, have reached 28.2% of the total estimated production. This is higher than 24.2% in the same period last year, but behind the five-year historical average of 33%. Soybean pre-sales rose 3.4 percentage points from last month.

2. According to Wind data, as of the week of November 12, soybean oil port inventories were 1.068 million tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from 1.081 million tons in the week of November 5.

3. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to be 2.81 million tons, higher than the 2.45 million tons expected last week; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.87 million tons, higher than the 1.56 million tons forecast last week; corn exports are expected to be 5.38 million tons, higher than the 4.77 million tons forecast last week.

4. The Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) said that in the second half of October, sugar production in central and southern Brazil reached 1.785 million tons, compared with 2.358 million tons in the same period last year. Sugarcane crushing volume was 27.167 million tons, compared with 34.659 million tons in the same period last year.

5. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data showing that private exporters reported sales of 110,500 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in 2024/2025.

6. The weekly export inspection report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that as of the week of November 7, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 2,277,907 tons, revised to 2,307,852 tons in the previous week, and the initial value was 2,158,646 tons. The market expected 2 million to 2.45 million tons. The United States shipped 1,587,958 tons of soybeans to China (mainland), compared with 1,399,413 tons in the previous week.

7. The weekly crop growth report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) early Wednesday morning showed that as of the week of November 10, the U.S. soybean harvest rate was 96%, lower than the market expectation of 97%, 94% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 91%. The U.S. corn harvest rate was 95%, in line with market expectations, 91% in the previous week, 86% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 84%.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to foreign media reports, the Governor of Belgorod Oblast, Russia, Gladkov, said on social media on the 12th that an oil depot in the state was attacked by a Ukrainian drone and an oil tank in the depot caught fire. The fire is now under control and the attack caused no casualties. The Military and Political Administration of Kyiv, Ukraine, said on the 12th that Kyiv was attacked by a drone that day and the air defense alarm was sounded.

2. According to Longzhong Information, the latest data shows that as of the week of November 11, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries reached 2.522 million tons, an increase of 979,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 63.45%. The crude oil arriving at the port this period was mainly medium-quality crude oil, of which 500,000 tons of Russian crude oil arrived at the port, but no new diluted asphalt arrived at the port.

3. The monthly rubber supply and demand report released by the Malaysian Statistics Department shows that in September 2024, Malaysia's natural rubber production fell by 13.9% month-on-month to 30,929 tons, and the output in August 2024 was 35,908 tons. Year-on-year data showed that Malaysia's natural rubber production in September decreased by 5.6% from 32,757 tons in September 2023.

4. According to SMM statistics, domestic photovoltaic glass production in October increased by 1.10% from September, and the monthly output increased by 24,500 tons compared with September.

5. OPEC's monthly report lowered the forecast for global crude oil demand growth this year and next year. It is expected that the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2024 will be 1.82 million barrels/day, which was previously expected to be 1.93 million barrels/day; the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 1.54 million barrels/day, which was previously expected to be 1.64 million barrels/day.

6. According to data from the Wood Industry Association, China's log and sawn timber imports in October 2024 were 4.666 million cubic meters, down 8.00% month-on-month and 9.89% year-on-year. From January to October, my country's cumulative log and sawn timber imports were 52.96 million cubic meters, down 3.32% year-on-year.

Metal Hot News

1. According to statistics from Shanghai Nonferrous Network, China's primary aluminum alloy production will be about 2.601 million tons in 2022, about 2.584 million tons in 2023, and China's primary aluminum alloy production is expected to increase to about 2.9 million tons in 2024.

2. According to SMM, Chile's environmental regulator said it had filed "serious" charges against the Potrerillos copper smelter operated by state-owned miner Codelco. The charges could result in a fine of about 4 billion pesos (4 million U.S. dollars) and possible revocation of environmental licenses or closure.

3. According to SMM, on November 12, an important nickel smelter in Sulawesi, Indonesia, successfully produced high-grade nickel matte. It is reported that so far, the base has the production capacity of diversified nickel products such as nickel pig iron, low-grade nickel matte and high-grade nickel matte.

4. The World Gold Council said in its latest report that global gold ETFs are expected to decrease by $809 million (12 tons) in the first week of November, with most of the outflows coming from North America, partially offset by strong inflows from Asia. In addition, COMEX net positions also fell by 74 tons, down 8% from the previous week.

Talking about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. If no anti-dumping measures are introduced, will the loose supply and demand situation of domestic imported rapeseed oil continue?

Xinhu Futures analysis pointed out that the recent fluctuations in domestic rapeseed oil prices are mainly related to marginal changes in China-Canada relations and news of anti-dumping incidents. In addition, the recent suspension of Canadian rapeseed oil exports due to port strikes and the advancement of rapeseed anti-dumping investigations by domestic associations have supported the significant strength of rapeseed oil. Since last night, news has shown that officials from the Canadian Agriculture Minister are traveling to China to possibly discuss mitigating the impact of China's tariffs on Canadian canola, and the market has fallen back. In the later period, the biggest change in the supply of imported rapeseed oil will be when and what measures China will launch an anti-dumping investigation into rapeseed imported from Canada. As China's purchases of Canadian rapeseed will be sufficient in the next few months, if anti-dumping measures are not introduced, the loose supply and demand situation of domestically imported rapeseed oil will continue.

2. As new rubber output is expected to increase, will rubber fluctuate in the short term and tend to be bearish?

Guosen Futures analysis pointed out that the main production areas abroad are in the seasonal peak production period, and the market's expectations for new rubber output are rising, suppressing the upward space of rubber prices. However, in the short term, southern Thailand is disturbed by weather, and Typhoon "Ginkgo" has an impact on Hainan and Vietnam production areas. The market will focus on whether the price of raw materials can stabilize as the weather improves and the extent of the typhoon's impact. The continued decline in butadiene prices is bearish for the synthetic rubber market atmosphere, and the center of gravity of the BR market has moved down significantly. From a technical perspective, natural rubber RU2501 may maintain a volatile operation in the short term. Synthetic rubber BR2501 continues to weaken and still needs to wait for a chance to stabilize. It is recommended to operate with a volatile bearish mindset.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. At 21:30 on November 13, the annual and monthly rates of the US unadjusted CPI for October were released. Previously, the annual rate of the US unadjusted CPI for September was 2.4%, which was the sixth consecutive month of decline, the lowest since February 2021, but higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. The annual rate of the US unadjusted core CPI for September was 3.3%, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 3.2%.

2. At 01:00 on November 14, EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report. The agency expects that the growth rate of global oil demand this year will be lower than previously estimated, while the growth rate of production will be higher than previously expected.

3. On November 14, Conab will release the results of the second Brazilian grain production survey for 2024/25. The agency expects Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 to be slightly increased to 169.5 million tons, with a planting area of ​​47.3 million hectares and a yield of 3.57 tons per hectare. Pay attention to the gap between actual data and expected values.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data