Cover design | Senka
Source | Talking About Li
Bitcoin has finally broken through $80,000, currently at $81,300 as of the writing of this article, with an overall increase of 30% over the past month. As shown in the figure below. Many people previously expected Bitcoin to at least break $80,000 in this bull market, but did not anticipate that this result would come so quickly.
In recent days, I have noticed that discussions among group members have become very active again, with almost hundreds of discussion messages every day. Many members have shared their insights and expressed their views on the market, and I personally have also benefited greatly from it.
Here, I would also like to share an interesting history with you. I remember when I decided to start a mutual aid group in July 2023, it wasn't until the end of July that the first partner added me, and by the end of October of the same year, only 9 partners had joined the group in 4 months.
Starting from November 2023, the number of people in the group began to increase rapidly, reaching over 200 people in just 2 months. If you compare the price trend of Bitcoin during that period, you will find that it coincided with a rising market phase. Then, starting from April 2024, the number of new members joining the group began to decrease again, basically maintaining a relatively stable number.
I remember that someone in the group jokingly said they would use the group's activity level as a market reference indicator, which is actually quite an interesting thing. From a certain perspective, it does seem that this can indeed serve as a direct observation auxiliary reference for sentiment.
At this stage, the market has become very optimistic, with many people full of expectations for future market trends, believing that the altcoin season has begun. However, some hold the opposite view, thinking that people are currently facing another bull market trap. In other words, the current market seems to continue to split into two factions of opinion:
Some people believe that Trump's election will continue to stimulate a rapid rise in the crypto market.
Some believe that people are currently (or about to) fall into a new round of bull market traps.
The so-called each has its own reasoning; it seems that every viewpoint can present its own basis. So, which direction will the market lean towards next? In this sharing, let's continue to try to sort out and discuss:
1. Some altcoins are starting to go crazy
In the past two weeks, the BTC.D (BTC Dominance) indicator has only decreased by about 1%, from 60% to 50%, but some altcoins have become impatient and rapidly increased, with tokens like SUI and DRIFT setting new records. As shown in the figure below.
On the surface, it seems that Trump's victory in this U.S. election has greatly stimulated the market's optimism, prompting some major players (institutions/market makers, etc.) to directly push up the prices of certain altcoins while Bitcoin continues to break historical highs. Perhaps, with the Federal Reserve's further interest rate cuts expected in the future, and as macro conditions remain favorable, this growth may continue for a while after a large influx of new liquidity into the market.
2. Changes in BTC ETF capital inflows
So far, this bull market has basically been driven by ETFs. After ETFs were officially approved and launched this year, they have garnered significant attention, leading to a large inflow of new funds, which subsequently drove Bitcoin's price to create new history. However, starting around March of this year, the total funds in ETFs began to show a net outflow, and market sentiment began to decline as a result. In contrast, recently, the BTC ETF has been experiencing a continuous influx of large amounts of funds. As shown in the figure below.
Taking last week's trading day as an example, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.63 billion over the week, and even on November 7, the single-day net inflow also set a new record. Among them, the Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.25 billion. The second was Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a weekly net inflow of $295 million.
ETF inflows, as one of the important sentiment indicators, have a clear logic behind them. Moreover, after Trump's election, the political support for crypto in the U.S. is expected to strengthen, which may further increase the likelihood for traditional financial institutions/large players to allocate funds toward crypto assets, with BTC ETF being the most convenient channel for traditional funds to invest in crypto. Not only that, even for ordinary U.S. stock investors, BTC ETF may become a very attractive asset type under Trump's platform.
3. The intensity of market liquidations has increased
As of the writing of this article, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $683 million, with 214,459 people liquidated, including over $320 million in long positions and over $360 million in short positions, which can be described as a slaughter of both longs and shorts. As shown in the figure below.
Many traders may primarily rely on technical analysis to operate, but under the short-term violent fluctuations in the market, a large number of liquidations may occur. If a bull market wants to start or continue, it needs to undergo or be accompanied by high-intensity liquidations and reshuffling, and only then may it trigger a larger-scale violent upward movement.
We expect that the market may see larger-scale liquidations in the coming days, so be mindful of short-term risks, especially for those who have leveraged positions.
4. Geopolitical instability may persist
Recently, it seems that most of the messages people see are positive, with various institutional analysts coming out to make bold statements, such as:
Economist and trader Alex Krüger said: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000.
Renowned analyst Markus Thielen said: Bitcoin's price could exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach about $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said: BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Even well-known crypto KOL PlanB said: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 2025 (as a top KOL during the last bull market, I personally think PlanB's prediction is a bit exaggerated; Bitcoin may reach $1 million in the future, but we won't see it next year).
And so on...
But there is another problem we cannot ignore: currently, there are still some unstable factors in geopolitical situations. The various positive news that market makers/major players show you are actively pushed in front of you, but with the rapid price increase, it cannot be ruled out that the market makers/major players will continue to use geopolitical events to create some negative news to push in front of people and conduct new tests on the market.
If the major players want to make a final violent upward move, they will definitely continue to conduct various necessary tests to assess whether people are ready to rush in with funds at the peak. If the tests are unsuccessful and liquidity still cannot meet the expectations of the market makers/major players, then the market may inevitably enter a new round of pullback.
In summary, we have only sorted out and discussed some phenomena we have recently observed. The bear market does not call a bottom, and the bull market does not call a top. Any so-called predictions (including discussions outside the main topic) about the market are merely speculative actions. For ordinary investors, our advice is to always maintain a sense of awe toward the market, not to completely believe those analysts who say the bull market has just begun, nor to fully believe those who say the bull market is about to end. The key thinking logic should still be based on your own risk preference and position management situation to make comprehensive considerations and decisions. For example, for those who have a Bitcoin holding cost of less than $20,000 in this cycle, we have actually come a long way at this stage.
I remember we mentioned in a previous article that if your average holding cost for Bitcoin during this bull market is below $40,000, after Bitcoin breaks $80,000, if you are worried and afraid of a possible new pullback, you may consider starting to reduce your position in batches. The specific reduction ratios can be allocated according to your own risk preferences and market expectations, for example, reducing 10% of your position at $80,000, another 1-2% at $85,000... and so on. However, in actual operations, one should not only focus on price but also consider K-line indicators, on-chain data indicators, macroeconomic indicators, and other dimensions (or dimensions you personally prefer, such as the group activity level mentioned at the beginning of our article) to assist in decision-making.
As for the altcoins, if you are not afraid of a possible pullback, you can boldly buy now (but also control your position well, it's best to operate in batches and try not to go all in) or wait for a pullback to buy those projects you have been very optimistic about, because theoretically and based on data, altcoins have not yet reached the point of large-scale explosion. However, if you are psychologically unstable or easily fear loss, then any operation you do now is a 50-50 chance game for you.
Looking ahead, the overall trend suggests that the market is likely to remain bullish (while also paying attention to the risk of pullbacks in the following days this week), but this bullish trend is not expected to last too long. Whether you can achieve your own profit target before this round of bull market ends depends on your operations in the next six months. The focus can initially be on the market opportunities before January next year (when Trump officially takes office as president); perhaps Bitcoin really has a chance to challenge the $100,000 mark. As for the long-awaited new round of altcoin season, I cannot accurately judge or predict the specific timing; it might occur in the first or second quarter of next year (geopolitical issues may further ease by then, combined with the Fed's continued rate cut expectations), but it is also unlikely that there will be a comprehensive altcoin season like the last bull market.
In the later stages of the bull market, the market will be filled with various enticing opportunities and FOMO emotions, but for retail investors like us, it often also means greater challenges. Wishing everyone good luck.
