Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly surged to 79,880, and Ethereum also continued to reach new highs at 3,220. There is a risk of a sharp pullback in the short term. Currently, chasing high to go long on Bitcoin or Ethereum carries significant risk, but don’t short if you are bearish. This has been emphasized for a while. This morning, I saw a large account on OKX lose 160 million USD while shorting SUI. The market never lacks opportunities, but without capital, even the most opportunities have little to do with you. We must respect market cycles and avoid trading against the trend. The current continuous surge, I personally define as a rally confirming the trend like the pre-National Day in A country. After the rally, we also saw a period of consolidation, and we still haven’t broken through 3,700 points. Of course, our circle has a quicker cycle, so after a short-term pullback, the upward trend is certain, and I believe no one doubts this now!
The problem is that friends who haven't entered don't know how to get in. It keeps rising, but the market cannot just keep rising like this. Therefore, pullbacks are normal and necessary; this is a healthy increase. Just like the first wave hitting a new high of 73,600, you thought the pullback to 70,000 was the bottom, but it went down to 66,810. This wave surged to near 80,000; how much it will pull back is unclear—hold your spot!
The market doesn't complete in a day, so don't aggressively chase the rise. Don't think about making the last wave of profits in the short term; quick in and out, don’t hold swing positions as long-term!
Brothers who observe carefully should notice that before 12 noon every day, specifically from 8 AM to 12 PM, we can basically determine the active coins for that day. Those who like to make swings can look for opportunities in these active coins. The profit from the surge of BNB this morning allows us to check related coins CAKE and BAKE. If they haven't surged yet, it’s an opportunity to enter.
Just like Ethereum surged, we should look for Ethereum-related varieties; if SOL is strong, we should seek opportunities in ecosystem projects. The same approach applies to other altcoins.
The wind is returning to ETH.
1. While BTC reached new highs, it also experienced the largest single-day short liquidation since the bull market began, which means BTC needs time to consolidate, providing opportunities for ETH.
2. ETH/BTC is starting to strengthen, with funds flowing out of BTC into ETH for two consecutive days. This could indicate a trend change.
3. The net inflow into ETH ETFs has exceeded 50 million U for two consecutive days, reaching a recent high.
4. Several DIFI projects such as ENA, AAVE, and MKR have seen their trading volumes surge to the forefront, whereas previously it was mostly MEME coins.
5. For the new government, besides BTC, which has strategic reserve value, only DEFI financial innovation can be showcased, and the DEFI ecosystem of ETH is the most complete.
How high will Ethereum rise in this bull market?
I believe a conservative estimate could reach 6,000 to 8,000 USD.
If the market experiences FOMO sentiment, a large influx of funds into Ethereum could even push the price above 10,000 USD.
In the context of global monetary easing, the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy will lead to more funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market, which will also push up the price of Ethereum.
According to recent data on Ethereum's spot ETFs, 23,558 ETH were added in just one day yesterday. Fidelity is the main buyer in the ETH spot ETFs, increasing its holdings by 10,000 ETH.
Secondly, Grayscale's Mini ETF has increased its holdings by 9,423 ETH.
Bitwise and Invesco have also each increased their holdings by over 2,000 ETH, and the overall purchasing power is on the rise.
If Ethereum can enable staking for spot ETFs, the purchasing power and positions of the ETFs could likely exceed the spot ETH itself, which would be a significant positive for Ethereum.
I believe that large institutions and smart money are not idle creating a spot ETF; it's likely to absorb the excess funds in the market.
Once a large amount of capital flows into Ethereum, the market supply-demand relationship will be disrupted, and the price of ETH will rise again.
How crazy can a bull market get? Let’s educate the newcomers in the circle!
Without mentioning the distant past, if we only look at the last bull market (2021-2022), Bitcoin had already undergone its third halving, rising up to eight times. Bitcoin is still the largest cryptocurrency, with a high market cap, making it unlikely to multiply by dozens of times again. What about other coins?
On that day, the price of Ethereum ETH was 188.6, and a year and a half later, it reached a historic high of 4,878, an increase of 2,486% over a year and a half, about 25 times, and this was not just a newly launched small coin but was already the second-largest Ethereum at that time.
If we look a bit further down, at that time, Cardano, ranked thirteenth, with ADA priced at 0.04768, also reached a historic high of 3.09 about a year and a half later, increasing by 6,380%, nearly 64 times.
If we look for smaller coins, the returns are even more substantial. Currently ranked tenth, the very well-known public chain coin SOL had just been listed not long ago, with a price of 0.6 on that day, and about a year and a half later, it reached a historic high of 259.96, an increase of 43,220%, more than 400 times.
Every bull market's hundredfold coin may be somewhat different, but for us investors in the cryptocurrency space, what’s important is to know that a hundredfold coin is not a myth or a fairy tale in cryptocurrency, but a real occurrence, with a considerable probability. Among the top 600, there have been 61 occurrences, so when the bull market is about to arrive, the biggest risk is not getting stuck, but not being on the bus.
