Currently, cryptocurrency prices are driven by multiple factors. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have cut rates by 25 basis points, China is expected to launch new fiscal stimulus, and global liquidity is abundant, providing strong support for the crypto market. Additionally, the growth in stablecoin liquidity also indicates upward momentum for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts slightly ease debt pressure, the U.S. economy is robust, and another rate cut may occur in December, but the specific impact remains to be observed. In the crypto market, Ethereum is trying to break the 200-day moving average, with support at $2330. Bitcoin has entered a price discovery phase; although $72000 seems high, the bull market may only be mid-term, while long-term remains bullish.
If the U.S. implements a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan (buying 1 million Bitcoins within five years), it will further push up the price of Bitcoin. Betwize's Chief Investment Officer Hogan stated that if Trump is elected, cryptocurrencies may welcome a golden era. Favorable policies may be introduced within 100 days of the new administration taking office, attracting mainstream capital. Some analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 before Trump's inauguration, with a short-term support target of $71,500 and the next target at $85,000.
From the market sentiment perspective, after a significant rise, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase. The positive impacts of Trump's election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are partially reflected in the price, and there are few new catalysts in the short term, which may lead to a pause. The daily 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average indicates a bullish signal. The recent price pullback is due to election uncertainties causing some profit-takers to exit. After Trump's victory, Bitcoin has regained strength, and the current daily RSI is close to the overbought area, indicating short-term pullback risks.
This wave of price increase has seen many spot buy orders, and futures leverage positions have also increased significantly, exacerbating volatility. Those who accumulated during the bear market do not need to operate too much at this stage. Bitcoin entering a price discovery phase is expected to grow rapidly. Notably, Trump will take office on January 20, 2025, which will have geopolitical and financial impacts, possibly promoting Bitcoin to be included as a strategic reserve, and Senator Cindy Anamis also supports the proposal for Bitcoin reserves. In the current market's greedy sentiment, caution is necessary; fear is an opportunity for accumulation.
Recently, Bitcoin has consolidated after a rise, the positive impacts of Trump's election and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have partially been reflected, and there are few new catalysts in the short term. Although there have been some redemptions from BlackRock's ETF, the overall inflow remains positive, and the average purchase cost of each ETF has increased, indicating market support.
The uncertainty of the presidential election has led some profit-takers to exit, causing price pullbacks. After Trump's victory, market confidence has been restored, and the daily 'golden cross' of Bitcoin is a sign of rising.
Although the daily RSI is close to overbought, indicating short-term pullback risks, there is still room for a long-term bull market. A large number of spot buy orders and increased futures leverage have intensified volatility, so holding spot can be a wait-and-see approach. It is expected that Bitcoin's price could reach $100,000 before Trump takes office, and short-term holders' SOPR indicates market profits, with the overall holding crowd not significantly reducing positions at high levels, indicating continued market optimism. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is low, showing no overheating, and bullish sentiment is increasing for the future, which may break through $85,000.
In addition, Bitcoin is currently the protagonist. After its rise stabilizes in the future, funds may flow into other cryptocurrencies, and the altcoin season may arrive. Overall, the crypto market is bullish in the long term, but short-term volatility and adjustments are inevitable. Investors need to operate cautiously and follow the cycles.
Recently, altcoins have followed Ethereum's rebound, with several altcoins experiencing slight adjustments during the day, which is a normal correction.
Summary of altcoins:
1. ENA: Has sold the principal at 0.5, currently expecting a possible pullback to 0.44;
2. WIF, BOME: The coins recommended yesterday, although there has been a pullback, they show strong capital interest and remain bullish for the future.
3. Continue to hold SATS, target price rise to around 50 for liquidation, medium-term target at 80.
4. OG is experiencing unusual activity, being the best performer among sports coins, it has already broken through resistance levels. This coin is likely to rise when other coins complete their rebound and enter a correction phase. It is recommended to open a small position first, with the additional purchase range between 6-5.9.
5. PEOPLE is waiting for a rebound, the trend is unstable, consider selling if it rebounds to 0.067.
6. After reducing the position in CKB, continue to hold and wait for ecological explosion.
7. Hold FTM, do not move FB for now, waiting for the ecological recovery.
