The Federal Reserve has once again announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.5%~4.75%, in line with market expectations, marking the ongoing implementation of this round of easing policies. It is noteworthy that this is the second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with the last cut occurring on September 18, when the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points, officially starting this rate cut cycle.
This rate cut is an important positive signal for the market, especially in the current environment of economic uncertainty, as low rates can alleviate borrowing cost pressures for businesses and consumers, thus stimulating economic activity. This is also a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin. As fiat currency yields decline, more investors may choose to shift their funds towards high-risk, high-return assets, and Bitcoin's role as 'digital gold' will become more prominent. The Federal Reserve's continued easing policies may bring more incremental capital to the crypto market. In the coming period, market expectations for the liquidity support brought by the rate cut will further bolster Bitcoin's upward trend.
Bitcoin prices briefly surged to $76,849.99, setting a new record, and are currently quoted at $75,966, with a 24-hour increase of 1.19%. Recent price fluctuations have been significant, and market sentiment is quite high. It is particularly notable that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF achieved its largest single-day inflow since its launch on November 7, with funds reaching $1.11692 billion, indicating strong demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin. This is not only a positive market signal but also shows that more institutions view Bitcoin as a long-term potential asset allocation tool.
This massive influx of funds has undoubtedly intensified bullish sentiment in the market. With continuous capital inflows, Bitcoin prices are likely to continue fluctuating at high levels, or even further push towards higher points. Historical data shows that the days with the highest inflow for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF were $872 million on October 30, $849 million on March 12, and $788 million on March 5, indicating that investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin is on the rise. The continued increase in institutional investment not only injects ample liquidity into the Bitcoin market but also solidifies its status as 'digital gold'. Amid heightened global economic uncertainty, Bitcoin is becoming a preferred asset for risk diversification, and it is expected that more institutions will increase their Bitcoin holdings in the future.
MicroStrategy's investment in Bitcoin is undoubtedly a classic case that motivates the market. As Bitcoin prices surpassed $76,000, the company's unrealized gains reached approximately $9.28 billion, representing enormous returns. As of September 19, 2024, MicroStrategy held a total of 252,220 Bitcoins, with a total cost of about $9.9 billion, and an average purchase price of $39,266. In simple terms, the Bitcoin price is now nearly double MicroStrategy's average purchase price, achieving an astonishing return on investment of 93.7%.
MicroStrategy's recent success undoubtedly sends an important signal to the market: Amid increasing uncertainty in the global macroeconomic environment and rising risks of dollar depreciation, Bitcoin is increasingly recognized by more institutions as a tool for combating inflation and preserving value. MicroStrategy's CEO, Michael Saylor, has unwavering confidence in Bitcoin, which not only provides a reference for other companies but may also encourage more companies to follow suit. From a market trend perspective, the long-term potential of Bitcoin remains optimistic, especially with the influx of more institutions and the strengthening expectations for ETF approvals. MicroStrategy's unrealized gains set an example for investors, proving that Bitcoin's asset value can indeed provide long-term returns. For investors looking to position in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy's success will bring stronger confidence.
CoinShares' latest report points out that if the Trump administration passes the (Bitcoin Act), it will bring significant benefits to the cryptocurrency industry. The core of this proposal is to establish Bitcoin as a 'strategic reserve asset' and suggest that the US government acquire 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. Currently, the total Bitcoin supply cap is 21 million, so 5% is approximately 1.05 million units. If this proposal comes to fruition, the US government will hold over 1 million Bitcoins, undoubtedly greatly enhancing the legitimacy and status of Bitcoin.
In the current international financial environment, if the US takes the lead in incorporating Bitcoin into its national reserves, it will further solidify its financial leadership position. This is similar to the logic of gold reserves, as Bitcoin is expected to become a means of storing value against inflation. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's stance toward the SEC is also a highlight. Trump has consistently criticized the current SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, and has indicated that if re-elected, he will adjust the leadership team to achieve a more open regulatory policy for cryptocurrencies. Compared to the current government's conservative stance, this change will undoubtedly benefit the development of the entire crypto market. From a market perspective, if the (Bitcoin Act) is successfully passed, it will undoubtedly have a huge impact on Bitcoin prices. Both institutional and retail investors will significantly increase their confidence in Bitcoin upon seeing government recognition. Bitcoin may witness a new wave of price increases, and other countries may follow suit under the influence of the US. The potential impacts of this series of policies could usher Bitcoin into a new era as 'digital gold'.
The US spot Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of 29,300 units yesterday, valued at $79.7 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 18,000 units yesterday, valued at $1.359 billion.
BTC: From yesterday's daily chart, it can be seen that Bitcoin formed a spinning top, indicating that the bullish momentum may be slightly weakening in the short term, but the overall trend remains upward. From a technical perspective, the current 5-day and 10-day moving averages for Bitcoin continue to rise, suggesting that market bullish sentiment has not yet dissipated and prices are likely to continue oscillating upwards along the moving averages. Combined with the current low ratio of long to short positions, it indicates that the market's bullish holdings are relatively concentrated, and major funds have significant control capabilities.
Additionally, the inflow of funds into ETFs has reached a historical high, reflecting strong demand from institutional investors for Bitcoin, while also demonstrating market confidence in future price increases. Coupled with macroeconomic benefits like interest rate cuts, even if there is a slight pullback in the short term, it is a normal digestion of previous gains. Overall, the medium to long-term direction for Bitcoin remains optimistic.
ETH: Ethereum closed with a bullish candle yesterday, and the RSI indicator showed signs of being overbought. A slight pullback may occur in the short term, but it will not affect the overall trend, and it is highly likely to continue moving upward in the future.
Altcoins: From the trend of altcoins, many are still at relatively low levels, making it a good time to gradually position. Although we have not yet entered the so-called 'altcoin season' and funds have not yet surged to the most frenzied stage, patiently waiting may bring greater opportunities. As Bitcoin's price fluctuates, many altcoins may follow suit, potentially welcoming an upward trend. For players optimistic about the future of altcoins, this stage can be a time to consider appropriate accumulation.
Today's Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed)#美联储利率决议来袭
