Is this the next phase of the bull market, or has it already peaked?
There is no doubt that it is definitely not the peak now. I personally think that we are entering a new phase. Judging from the current momentum, there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, and it is entirely possible that Bitcoin will break through $85,000 before the end of the year.
However, you have to know that even if Trump comes to power, cryptocurrency is not the top priority for the Republican Party. Military spending, health insurance and other high-priority matters are definitely ahead of cryptocurrency. Therefore, cryptocurrency may become a policy focus in the second quarter of 2025, and it will be very good to be involved at that time. The expectation may have to be postponed for a while.
As long as there is no economic recession or black swan events, the fourth quarter of 2024 should be relatively stable. There may be some fluctuations from Christmas to January 20, but after the inauguration on January 10, there is likely to be a wave of good news.
From a historical perspective, the halving after a big drop usually rises steadily after half a year. However, the arrival of a bull market does not mean that there will be no losses. Everyone has different operating strategies and different perceptions. And as more and more institutions and large funds enter the market, we small investors may face more challenges.
In general, the risk before the second quarter of 2025 is relatively low. What is worth paying attention to is the US monetary policy, including whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, the trend of unemployment rate and whether inflation will recur.
