Last night, I saw news of Trump leading in swing states. However, bears still took advantage of low liquidity to amplify panic with news, smashing the market and liquidating many contracts.
Bitcoin continued to follow market sentiment and fell last night. The pre-election downtrend is still relatively healthy; on one hand, there is the risk of uncertainty regarding the election results, and on the other hand, the liquidation of long positions has dropped about 9.1% from the peak of 73,620.
Currently, a strong signal has appeared in the 4-hour level, around 66,000 being the bottom support of this pullback.
Currently, relevant stakeholders worldwide are waiting for the U.S. elections, so let's be a little more patient.
In the past two days, discussing anything else has become meaningless; now the whole world is focused on the election, which has overshadowed other significant macro events like the FOMC meeting. Everything will revolve around the election. The price fluctuations currently have almost no reference significance; the moment the election results are announced is the beginning of short-term outcomes. I hope Trump can win soon, driving BTC to new highs!
The U.S. elections are approaching, and uncertainty factors are affecting the market!
How will the market change after the election results are announced?
In the current market, there will be a 'most important event' every month or two to influence the market. Two months ago, everyone was focused on CPI, then FOMC became the focus, and now everyone is paying attention to the U.S. elections.
The volatility of the election situation is also continuously intensifying, which is the reason for the recent significant fluctuations in the market.
Let's start analyzing from Bitcoin's price trend. First, Bitcoin has adjusted before every U.S. election.
A week before the 2016 election, Bitcoin fell by 10%.
Before the 2020 election, Bitcoin fell by 7%.
This time, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 8% from its recent high.
Now, let's look at some external factors in the market correlation to help understand the current situation:
After October 6, the odds of Trump's victory began to rise, and Bitcoin also increased during the same period. On October 30, Trump's odds peaked, and at the same time, Bitcoin prices also reached a high. This indicates that the market is anticipating Trump's victory.
But what if Harris wins?
Firstly, Harris's victory would be very unfavorable for the crypto market (especially altcoins) because many altcoins are considered securities. Harris's election means that crypto projects will continue to face strict and ambiguous regulation from the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). In my opinion, if Harris wins, it could lead to a 12-15% drop in Bitcoin, with altcoins potentially dropping even more.
However, this will not trigger a market intervention in a bear market:
Regardless of who wins, this round of bull market will continue. The reason is that the driving force of this bull market does not depend on Trump's victory, but comes from other factors, such as:
1. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
2. M2 money supply increases
3. Strong demand for Bitcoin ETFs
The four-year cycle will still be realized, and Bitcoin is expected to break through $100,000.
Trust me, a month later, no one will care who won the election; the market will turn to the next hot spot, and the bull market will continue.
So, there's no need to listen to those who are bearish; continue to hold firmly! There's no need to rush to sell at low positions.
Regarding the future market, at the end of October, Bitcoin stopped just over $100 away from its historical high. Someone did this intentionally, obviously not having enough chips. Last week, BlackRock bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, and their total holdings have risen to 433,700 coins. They are also waiting, waiting for the election to finish, waiting for interest rate cuts. Bitcoin is likely to continue a volatile upward trend, with opportunities to touch $70,000. It is expected that after some more fluctuations, the historical high could be reached as early as the end of this month, or at the latest, by early next month.
Most altcoins have dropped by 70-80%, some even by more than 90%. Many are asking if they can return to previous highs? About 60-70% will not go back.
Compared to the good-hearted market makers helping retail investors, they are more willing to hype new hot spots. Once this hot spot passes, it basically becomes a wave of flow, as you can see different sectors of altcoins or MEME being lively, just covering those declining altcoins.
In the future trend, funds will continuously rotate and then return to mainstream sectors, followed by continuous rotation. During this period, some strong sectors, like MEME, will span the entire cycle, growing with the cycle, and will continue to reach new highs, while weak sectors will oscillate, completing accumulation and only exploding in the last few days. Remember, the first element of trend reversal is that the VC coin sector comes along; often, when a certain VC coin rises sharply, the trend has come.
Currently, Bitcoin is falling, and some altcoins are not following the drop. On-chain conditions are also a bit cool, and funds are flowing back, which is a good thing. Let's wait for the election to finish, and good things will come in pairs.
The crypto market has never lacked hot news or events. Just like now, no one cares about the Bitcoin halving event, no one cares about various governments selling Bitcoin, and no one cares whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates... Maybe in a few months, who the U.S. president is will also be of no concern.
Market hot news or events always appear in front of retail investors at the most appropriate time. We should not let various news disrupt our plans and strategies. What we should care about is: do you have positions in hand, and can your altcoins rotate to increase?
