Ending the previous rapid rise, recently, including Bitcoin, many virtual assets have encountered a plunge again. At the end of October, Bitcoin briefly rose to over $73,620, but since November, it has retraced, breaking through various levels at $73,000, $70,000, and $68,000, reaching as low as $66,800 in the early hours of today. Amid Bitcoin's sharp decline, other cryptocurrencies in the virtual asset market have also not escaped the downturn. Ethereum dropped to a low of $2,357; SOL fell to a low of $155, both of which have currently recovered somewhat.
In the past 24 hours, over 80,000 users have been liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount reaching $211 million.
Three Bitcoin derivatives indicators show that the market is not in a panic.
Although bearish momentum remains strong in the short term, three Bitcoin derivatives indicators show that the market is not in a panic. These positive indicators include the long-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, total open contracts for BTC futures, and demand for stablecoins in China.
According to the total positions of whales and market makers on Binance and OKX, they show relative confidence in the price recovery of Bitcoin. Despite Bitcoin's price dropping below $67,500 on November 4, this indicator has not shown signs of weakness.
Traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's price but are unwilling to pay more than $70,000, as some believe that a victory for Kamala Harris and the Democrats may bring further regulatory scrutiny and limit integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance.
Investors are still increasing leveraged positions
Currently, there are 582,000 open contracts for BTC, which is the same as the previous week and 10% higher than the level on October 4. This indicates that despite recent uncertainty and price corrections, investors are still increasing leveraged positions. Combined with the long and short data from top traders, it suggests that even after Bitcoin soared above $73,500 on October 29, there remains moderate bullish sentiment.
Is MtGox transferring coins again, planning to dump before the election?
Starting from 7:38 AM this morning, the MtGox wallet transferred up to 32,371 Bitcoins within two hours, valued at approximately $2.2 billion.
The MtGox wallet address currently still holds 44,300 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $3.05 billion.
This morning's transfer set a record for the largest transfer from MtGox in recent months. Just four days ago, the MtGox address transferred 500 Bitcoins to two unmarked wallet addresses, marking the first movement from MtGox since the end of September.
The pattern of transferring large amounts of Bitcoin from MtGox usually involves concentrating funds into new addresses and then sending them to exchanges. In the past, before MtGox compensated creditors through exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken, they had engaged in such transfer activities, indicating that these Bitcoins may also be sent to exchanges next, possibly to prepare for compensating creditors.
The MtGox repayments may largely increase selling pressure in the Bitcoin market because early investors who lost these bitcoins 10 years ago are now seeing prices significantly higher, prompting them to choose to sell at least part of their assets.
Repayment deadlines extended, selling pressure may be limited
MtGox announced in October that due to many creditors not completing the necessary procedures to receive repayments and various issues arising during the repayment process, a certain number of bankruptcy creditors have temporarily not received compensation. Therefore, the deadline for compensation will be extended to October 31, 2025, and given the extended repayment period, the selling pressure on Bitcoin is also expected to be less concentrated.
Ultimately, the selling pressure from MtGox will be less than expected, as nearly 75% of creditors have chosen Early payout (which requires accepting a 10% depreciation), so only about 95,000 Bitcoins will be used for early compensation.
Moreover, most creditors are long-term holders of Bitcoin, and are expected to hold onto their Bitcoin more than the market anticipates, so the selling pressure for Bitcoin will not be as significant as investors imagine. However, BCH may experience severe declines due to its low liquidity.
The current value of Bitcoin is significantly undervalued
With the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs earlier this year and the entry of numerous traditional financial institutions, along with the loosening of U.S. monetary policy and the unstable global economic environment, various factors may allow Bitcoin to break out of its past 'diminishing returns' dilemma and achieve a super bull market.
Although everything is currently just speculation, regardless of who ultimately wins the U.S. presidential election, as long as the market remains stable and the trend of funds flowing into Bitcoin continues, Bitcoin may enter a growth period again. With the maturation of the crypto market, Bitcoin's growth is also expected to become more stable, gradually becoming an indispensable part of global investment portfolios.
Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often experience a surge in the year of a U.S. presidential election, coinciding with the election results. However, it is worth noting that history does not simply repeat itself, and caution should still be exercised; one should not rely excessively on historical data to increase leveraged operations.
The crypto market has never been short of hot news or events, just like now, where no one cares about Bitcoin's halving event, no one cares about governments selling Bitcoin, and no one cares about whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates... Perhaps in a few months, who the U.S. president is will also be of no concern... What we need to care about is how much inventory we have, how many bullets we have, and whether we can seize opportunities when they arise.
