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Today's Picks
U.S. October non-farm payrolls data is a surprise
US media says Iran plans to launch a fierce combined attack on Israel
OPEC+ extends production increase plan for one month
Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin in key swing states
Caixin China Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion range in October
October property market transactions send positive signals
China decides to expand visa-free countries
Market Review
Last Friday, despite the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payrolls report for October, the U.S. dollar index reversed in a V-shape and nearly recovered all the losses during the week, closing down 0.4% at 104.31, as the market realized that the data distorted by hurricanes and Boeing strikes would not prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sharply. The U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after refreshing the daily low, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.386%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.21%.
As the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields remained strong, spot gold rose and fell after the release of non-farm data, and finally closed down 0.32% at $2,735.16 per ounce, falling for the second consecutive day and hitting the worst weekly performance since August. Spot silver once returned to the 33 mark, and then continued to give up gains, and finally closed down 0.73% at $32.42 per ounce.
As analysts expect Iran's retaliation against Israel to be restrained, and as record-high U.S. crude oil production and weaker economic data have raised concerns about demand, international crude oil prices have retreated from their highs. WTI crude oil fell nearly $2 from its intraday high and eventually closed down 1.65% at $69.13 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.57% at $72.86 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.69%, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. Most of the star stocks rose, Intel (INTC.O) rose 7.8%, Amazon (AMZN.O) rose 6.1%, and Apple (AAPL.O) fell 1.3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.1%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) rose 2.5%, Li Auto (LI.O) rose 0.2%, and NIO (NIO.N) fell 0.1%.
Major European stock indices rebounded collectively, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.93%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closing up 0.83%; and Europe's STOXX 50 index closing up 1.04%.
Hong Kong stocks opened high and fluctuated throughout the day, with wide fluctuations. The Hang Seng Index opened 110 points higher at 20,427 points, and the increase was narrowed to 36 points. After the release of mainland economic data, it rose again, reaching 20,667 points by nearly 350 points near noon. It fluctuated and fell in the afternoon, and the increase narrowed. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.93%, with a cumulative decline of 0.41% for the week; the Sci-Tech Index closed down 0.34%, with a cumulative decline of 1.19% for the week, and the Hang Seng Index market turnover was HK$141.48 billion. On the market, non-ferrous metals, port transportation, domestic real estate, and mobile game stocks strengthened, and rare earth concept stocks performed well; support services, electronic parts, and power equipment stocks fell, and semiconductors and photovoltaic solar stocks fell sharply. In terms of individual stocks, Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) rose more than 5%, China Overseas Development (00688.HK) rose more than 4%, Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) and China Hongqiao Holdings (01378.HK) rose more than 3.5%, Li Auto (02015.HK) fell more than 9.5%, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) fell nearly 8%, and SMIC (00981.HK) fell nearly 5%.
The three major A-share indexes fluctuated and adjusted. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.88%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell more than 9%. On the market, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose against the trend, and more than ten stocks such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, Innolux, and China Rare Earth rose by the daily limit. Retail stocks strengthened, and Yonghui Supermarket, Laobaixing and other stocks rose by the daily limit. The software service sector fell sharply, and many stocks such as Runhe Software and Yinzhijie fell by more than 10%. Nonferrous metals, Chinese characters, petroleum, liquor, coal and other sectors also rose at the top, and Zhipu AI, digital currency, semiconductors and other sectors also fell at the top. The transaction amount of the two markets exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, and more than 4,300 stocks fell in the entire market.
International News
1. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in October was 12,000, the smallest increase since December 2020; traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Fitch: The "real number" of non-farm payrolls in October may be an increase of 119,000.
2. Middle East situation: ① Israeli officials said that a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon may be reached within two weeks; ② The deputy commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that another military operation against Israel is "certain"; ③ US media: Iran plans to launch a fierce combined attack on Israel, but whether it will be implemented remains to be seen. ④ US B52 strategic bombers have arrived in the Middle East.
3. According to Yonhap News Agency: South Korea, the United States and Japan held a joint air exercise using B-1B bombers.
4. The New York Times poll shows that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin.
5. Traders increased their bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates, with four cuts expected by the end of 2025.
6. OPEC+ agreed to postpone the planned production increase of 180,000 barrels per day by one month.
7. According to a statement from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, Iraq has confirmed that it has reduced its oil production to 3.3 million barrels per day in accordance with its commitment to OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. The production cuts will continue in the coming months.
8. Russian media: Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field's output has recovered to 80% after maintenance.
9. The Governor of the Russian Central Bank said that they are recovering Russia's frozen assets.
10. The latest agreement between North Korea and Russia: Dialogue between the two countries will continue at multiple levels.
11. The trading hours of the Tokyo Stock Exchange will be extended by half an hour starting from November 5.
12. North America will begin to implement winter time from November 3rd.
13. Nvidia will replace Intel and be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
14. Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 financial report - cash reserves exceeded US$300 billion, setting a new record; Apple shares were reduced by 25%; both revenue and net profit exceeded expectations; no company shares were repurchased in the third quarter.
Domestic News
1. In October, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.3, 1 percentage point higher than in September, returning to the expansion range.
2. Ministry of Commerce: Will launch a series of new policies in the consumer field together with relevant departments.
3. The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments revised and issued the "Administrative Measures for Strategic Investments by Foreign Investors in Listed Companies".
4. Ministry of Commerce: The EU side stated that it will continue consultations with China on the specific content of the EU’s price commitment in the anti-subsidy case against China’s electric vehicles.
5. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: In October, the total transaction volume of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing increased for the first time after falling for eight consecutive months.
6. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: In September, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 25.371 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%.
7. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China has decided to expand the scope of visa-free countries and implement a trial visa-free policy for nine countries including South Korea.
8. The 22nd China-South Korea Steel Dialogue was held in Seoul.
9. All preparations for the 7th CIIE are basically ready. Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 7th CIIE and related activities.
10. On November 3, the wholesale price of a box of 24-year-old Feitian Moutai rose back to 2,230 yuan per bottle, having previously fallen below 2,000 yuan.
11. National Medical Insurance Administration: Conduct verification on the duplication of the traceability code of Compound Donkey-hide Glue Syrup. The results of the 2024 national medical insurance negotiations are expected to be released at the end of November.
12. The second batch of CSI A500 ETF will be issued intensively on Tuesday this week.
13. SERES responded to the M9 accident in Kunming: The train was in human driving mode at the time of the accident, and the ignition was 100% open. SERES: We have never planned to hold a meeting such as the "Humanoid Robot Technology Forum".
14. The fourth round of inspections by the 20th Central Committee has begun, and regular inspections lasting about two months have been carried out.
15. The 2024 National Industrial and Information Technology System Industry Science and Technology Innovation Work Seminar was held in Shenyang.
16. Beijing has fully launched the registration of integrated housing and land rights for homesteads, and farmers will receive a "big red book".
17. The main structure of Shenzhen’s largest shantytown renovation project has been fully topped off.
18. Zhai Jun, the Chinese government’s special envoy for Middle East affairs, attended the first high-level meeting of the international coalition to implement the “two-state solution”.
19. Jiang Ping and her teacher did not win any prize in the final. The Alibaba Global Mathematics Competition Organizing Committee admitted that their preliminary results violated the rules.
20. Xpeng Motors responded to ArcelorMittal Group’s patent infringement lawsuit: We are in communication and require suppliers to verify the source of relevant materials.
Risk Warning
☆ 16:50-17:00, final values of manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone in October;
☆ 23:00, U.S. September factory orders monthly rate;
☆ Market closure reminder: Japan-Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to Cultural Day.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data