Predators are not the 'opponents' of retail investors. They are the retail investors' natural enemies.
Last night's non-farm payroll data shocked the market!
The employment figures that were counted are only about one-tenth of the expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the path of 'employment collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline' this time, but instead all rose together. So it had to be forcibly explained as 'employment collapse => the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates => risk assets rise.'
However, before the non-farm payroll data came out, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25bp in November. With such poor data, it merely added another 10%, making it an absolute cut. How could the risks of recession be wiped out? Let's take a closer look at the intraday data. It turned out to be a case of rising first and then falling.
This naturally linked to BTC taking a roller coaster ride, surging from 70k to nearly 71.5k at 20:30, then suddenly diving at 22:30, plunging from above 71k down to 69k.
Last night's surge and drop directly led to a sharp decrease in positions across the three major derivatives exchanges: Binance, OKEx, and Bybit.
This indicates that smart money from both bulls and bears significantly exited last night to avoid the upcoming large volatility. Therefore, everyone can consider reducing their positions.
This weekend may be different from usual; with the election day approaching, market control is becoming more frequent, so everyone must pay attention to volatility.
The panic from the news has already triggered some whales to sell off their holdings in large amounts. The situation is becoming increasingly unstable; it seems that no matter who the White House master is, the market is highly likely to crash. Of course, these are just some of the things currently reflected by the market. The outcome will still be determined by time. What we need to do is to firmly protect our principal and seize the opportunity for a decisive victory.
From the technical perspective of Bitcoin on the daily chart, the resistance above is very strong. The continuous three bearish candles have formed a descending box, and the position at 69,700 is still the upper edge of the box. According to the trend, the probability of a bearish engulfing pattern is quite high.
So pay attention to the slow decline in the next couple of days, but it's recommended not to chase too aggressively. The technical aspect is minor when faced with news; one must recognize the major trend!
I always advise you not to cut losses at random during every downturn. Never reverse your operations; we slowly sell during a big rise.
When the chips are down, we bravely buy the bloody chips. Why do the most people lose money in a bull market?
Given the current environment, the market is at the bottom area, but it may not necessarily be the lowest point. We cannot buy at the lowest point, and even if we did, it doesn't matter much; what you can actually eat is what is real to you. A big pot of rice, can one person finish it all?
Being at the bottom doesn't mean it will reverse immediately; most of the time it won't. How much confidence do you have in your targets? What will you do if the bottom doesn't rise for a long time? While watching others' coins soar, can you resist the temptation? When you hear certain information, does your heart surge?
In the spot market for the long term, my best strategy is to hold stable mainstream coins. For instance, if mainstream coins really haven't pulled back much during a correction, then add leading targets, and enter small positions in some potential early-stage developing targets without making any waves.
