Daily Market Analysis (10.31)

Summary:

1. Initial jobless claims are very likely to be published below the forecast value, which will lead to a downward spike; after the spike, we will see the rebound strength.

2. Even if U.S. stocks do not face systemic risks before December, they still lack about a 10% correction. Be cautious of the waterfall in the next couple of days.

3. In the last 4-hour uptrend, I entered at 59333 and reached around 67000, but ultimately misjudged and took profit prematurely. However, this 4-hour downtrend will still develop.

4. It's rare to discuss the last bull market, but comparing it reveals that the current situation is roughly equivalent to August 2021.

5. The big single direction generally only lasts about 20 days; it doesn't seem like a big single direction currently.

6. Rapid rises followed by slow declines; be cautious of the waterfall in these two days.

On the operational side:

Medium to long-term:

1. For the short position $BTC , take half off at the 66000 level, and exit completely at the 64500 level. Exit completely for short position $ETH at the 2250 level. Exit completely for short position $SOL at the 147 level. The expectation for the altcoin short position is that the space won't be too large; watch the defensive strength and set the risk-reward ratio to 1:2.

Short-term:

1. Place a short order for Bitcoin at the 72999 level and add to the short at 73888. Place a short for Ethereum at 2770. Place a short for SOL at 178. The target remains unchanged.