According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the market expects a 98.8% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 1.2%. This indicates that the market nearly unanimously believes the Federal Reserve will take action to cut rates in November to address the pressures of slowing economic growth and falling inflation.
For the cryptocurrency market, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve usually brings positive effects. Rate cuts mean increased liquidity, and a rise in dollar liquidity will benefit the inflow of funds into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. As interest rates decrease, investors in the market will reallocate assets in search of higher returns, which could drive Bitcoin prices further up. Additionally, data shows that the market expects a larger rate cut by December, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut reaching 78.3%, demonstrating strong market expectations for further easing of monetary policy. In the short term, the Bitcoin market is likely to receive favorable stimuli from liquidity easing, but attention must also be paid to the uncertainties of Federal Reserve policies. If the Federal Reserve's policies do not align with market expectations, it could lead to significant price fluctuations.
The upcoming US unemployment rate data is viewed as one of the key factors affecting Bitcoin's trend. According to Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, if the data performs poorly, it will trigger market concerns about the economic outlook, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', often attracts investor inflows during times of economic uncertainty.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is near historical highs, with market sentiment relatively optimistic, but there is also profit-taking pressure. Therefore, the performance of the unemployment rate data will be the main driver in the short term. If the data falls short of expectations, it will strengthen investors' outlook for the Federal Reserve to continue slowing interest rate hikes, which could drive Bitcoin prices up. Conversely, if the data is better than expected, Bitcoin may face retracement pressure. Therefore, investors should closely monitor the release of the US unemployment rate this week. The release of this data could become an important opportunity for Bitcoin to break new highs, but caution is also needed regarding risks from short-term volatility.
The collaboration between Visa and Coinbase is undoubtedly 'big news'! Through Visa debit cards, Coinbase users in the US and EU can now achieve real-time fund transfers and directly purchase cryptocurrencies, meaning cryptocurrency trading will become as simple and convenient as everyday shopping. For many users, this is undoubtedly a significant benefit, making it easier for them to enter the crypto world.
The highlight of this collaboration is Visa's 'endorsement' as a global payment giant, making cryptocurrency purchasing methods more mainstream and accepted. This not only simplifies the investment process but also greatly reduces users' time costs, allowing more people to enter the market and seize investment opportunities anytime, anywhere. It is foreseeable that Visa's involvement will significantly boost Coinbase's user growth, further accelerating the popularity of cryptocurrencies. For the market, the collaboration between Visa and Coinbase will enhance market confidence and attract more traditional financial users' attention and investment in cryptocurrencies. Perhaps, we are witnessing an important turning point towards the 'popularization' of cryptocurrencies.
The Chief Financial Officer of Florida has proposed the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, referring to it as 'digital gold'. This signal undoubtedly adds new possibilities for the widespread adoption of Bitcoin. As part of the traditional financial system, the government has proposed establishing a 'strategic' Bitcoin reserve for the first time, indicating that mainstream financial institutions are increasingly recognizing Bitcoin. Additionally, this reflects a means for some state governments to hedge against future dollar depreciation and economic uncertainties.
From a market perspective, Bitcoin has recently experienced a steady price increase, currently fluctuating around $72,000. If governments in Florida and other regions actually acquire Bitcoin reserves, it may further boost market demand and support prices, potentially pushing the market towards higher levels. However, it should also be noted that the market may experience emotional spikes due to this news in the short term. Although Florida's statement did not specify the exact amount of operations, its symbolic significance is substantial and may signal other state governments or institutions considering Bitcoin reserves in the future.
The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 2,961 coins yesterday, worth $7.6 million.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 11,800 coins yesterday, worth $827 million.
BTC: A medium bullish candle with increased volume was formed yesterday, indicating strong market sentiment. The price has significantly deviated from the 5-day moving average, thus, short-term bullish momentum may weaken. According to the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines continue to expand upwards, but the green histogram has shown some convergence, indicating a sign of weakening upward momentum; the RSI indicator is around 76, entering the overbought zone, suggesting potential retracement pressure. The KDJ indicator's K and J lines have shown high-level stagnation, indicating limited space for further price increases in the short term.
In summary, considering the recent surge in volume and the overbought state of technical indicators, it is expected that a new high may be reached within the next 3 days followed by a rapid pullback, with a corrective adjustment near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Resistance levels: 73,000-75,000 range;
ETH: A small bullish candle was formed yesterday, currently above the 10-day moving average, with potential for further short-term gains. Resistance levels: around 2868; around 3102;
SOL: The price has formed spinning tops at relatively high levels for two consecutive days, suggesting that bullish momentum may be waning, and after potentially making a new high in the short term, a pullback may occur.
Altcoins: The performance of altcoins is closely related to Bitcoin's rise. Strong altcoins that have confirmed their right-side trend show good performance, while some weaker altcoins are still struggling to form bottom structures. If Bitcoin can effectively break through, whether it's a real breakout or a false signal, altcoins are likely to continue their strong performance. Therefore, we need to patiently wait and keep an eye on market dynamics.
Current Fear and Greed Index: 77 (Extreme Greed) #下一BTC历史新高是多少？
