The key meeting originally scheduled for the end of October has been postponed to November 8 after the U.S. election. Why was this decision made? Because there have been significant changes in the U.S. election recently.
In July this year, during a campaign rally, an incident occurred that garnered sympathy from the American public, causing Trump's winning probability to soar to 71%. However, after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and Harris took over, as time passed, public sympathy waned, and with Harris performing well in the televised debates, Trump's winning probability dropped back to a low of 43%.
From September to October this year, Trump and Harris have been in a 50-50 status. Until October 9, Trump's winning probability started to rise continuously, reaching around 60%.
I previously introduced a website that provides a platform for trading risks.
This website allows betting on six major categories of events, including politics, digital currencies, sports, pop culture, business, and science. For example, you can bet on the winner of the U.S. election, the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the champion of the English Premier League in 2024, and whether the temperature will rise in October 2024. As long as you believe these events will impact you (result in a loss), you can hedge risks by placing bets.
We can also use this website to observe the probabilities of different outcomes for various events. The more capital involved (the more participants), the odds reflect results closer to reality, after all, the occurrence of a black swan event is very low. So far, the amount of money involved in trading bets on the U.S. election has reached $2.2 billion, worth about 15 billion RMB, which is not a trivial amount.
In the past few days, I carefully reviewed information around October 9 and found no significant changes overseas. Later, after asking some friends, I learned that the changes in the website's winning probabilities (odds) were due to a big player betting on Trump's win. This indicates that there are some things that we ordinary people do not know, but these large investors have insight and placed their bets in advance.
