Beware of Black Swans Before the Surge

Although Bitcoin has risen to over 69,000 in recent days, there haven't been many altcoins taking off. Meanwhile, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, gold, and silver are all rising, with gold continuously breaking new highs. The U.S. stock market has begun to move sideways at high levels. The BRICS countries meeting will be held in Kazan from the 22nd to the 24th, with a combined GDP of 60 trillion USD. One of the topics they're discussing is related to a currency settlement system, primarily led by Russia to create a BRICS settlement system, no longer relying on the U.S. dollar. If a consensus is reached, a large amount of dollar assets could be abandoned, and the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and banks may face a significant blow, making a black swan event very likely. Let's see how the Americans will respond.

If the meeting reaches a consensus and takes action, let's reason it out: on the 24th, after the meeting ends, during the day, the Asian market receives news that pushes A-shares up, while in the evening, U.S. stocks and bonds are hammered, followed by withdrawals and currency exchanges. On the 25th, the day continues in the same manner, and in the evening, the Americans intervene to stabilize the market. If there's a chain reaction over the weekend and the impact of the event is significant without countermeasures, then cryptocurrencies may struggle to gain traction before the election. However, it will also lead to a larger U.S. dollar inflation and continuous depreciation of the dollar, making it more likely for Bitcoin to reach one million dollars.