Recently, there was an explosive news in the prediction market. A gambler with the pseudonym "Fredi9999" was suspected of manipulating Trump's election odds on the decentralized platform Polymarket.
In the past two weeks, Trump's margin of victory has suddenly soared from being on par with Harris to 60.7%, while Harris's margin of victory has fallen to 39.3%. The allegations were revealed by an anonymous cryptocurrency gambler named Domer, who shared his findings in detail on social media.
Polymarket, a gambling platform, is suspected of being manipulated
Domer said Fredi has been betting heavily on Trump, possibly more than $25 million. The influx of huge amounts of money has artificially inflated Trump's odds by 5% to 8%, meaning that betting on Trump has become more expensive and betting on Harris has become cheaper. Domer believes that this strategy has disrupted Polymarket's supply and demand balance, resulting in pricing deviations.
Domer also found that Fredi controlled multiple accounts with a total position of about $28 million. These accounts received large deposits from the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, and then all the money was invested in the Trump-related market.
Other researchers have also found some patterns between these accounts, suggesting that they may be controlled by the same person. Domer even speculated that Fredi may be from France, as he lived in the United States for a period of time and used a mixture of British and American English spellings in his comments.
However, Domer also said that there may be a bigger conspiracy behind Fredi, or he may be deliberately playing a role to cover up his true intentions. After all, betting $25 million on one person is unprecedented.
Cause and motive of the incident
The news came as Hasu, a strategic advisor at cryptocurrency project Lido Finance, criticized Polymarket for hiding open interest everywhere on the site, making the market look misleading despite prioritizing trading volume.
Historically, large individual bets have occasionally influenced prediction markets, but ultimately failed to change election outcomes, raising questions about the integrity of large-scale bets like those made by Polymarket.
Domer ended with a question: "Why should I care? Good question! You have to know who you are betting against, because you could be a super smart trading firm or an idiot betting on something he expects to happen. It's very important to understand what the motivation is."
Conclusion:
The incident in which "Fredi" manipulated Trump's odds on Polymarket has made us once again examine the regulatory loopholes in the cryptocurrency market. This suspected market manipulation not only made the public question the integrity of the prediction market, but also highlighted the need for global financial regulatory cooperation.
As the incident unfolds, we expect regulators to take action to ensure fairness and transparency in the market. At the same time, this is also a reminder that as financial technology continues to advance, we need to constantly adapt and improve the regulatory framework to maintain a healthy and sustainable financial market environment.
💬 What do you think about this? What do you think the real purpose of this mysterious gambler Fredi is? Come to the comment section to share your thoughts!
