It has broken the $65,000 mark! With optimism about China's economic stimulus and the possibility of Trump's re-election, more and more people are speculating. China wants to revive its economy and hinted at more economic aid over the weekend, but has not yet said how much. Economists are divided on this, with some feeling that Beijing is not doing enough to deal with deflation, and the Chinese stock market is also stumbling.
The US presidential election is a big deal for the cryptocurrency industry. Prediction markets are giving Trump a better chance of beating Harris. Over the weekend, Trump's odds rose to 53.7%, while Harris's dropped to 45.7%. Just last week, they were almost tied. Now, Trump's lead is clear on platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi.
Bets on this election have also surged, exceeding $1 billion. Trump's odds of winning have soared after his recent public appearances, which seems to be in his favor. In order to win the support of black men, Harris said she would promote clear cryptocurrency rules to make black Americans who have invested more confident. She also promised to work with Congress to legalize marijuana and ensure that black men can find entrepreneurial and job opportunities in the growing marijuana industry.
While bettors are more bullish on Trump, recent polls are not entirely consistent. The latest ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris slightly ahead by 2 percentage points, but that doesn't seem to be swaying the market. In swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is closing in quickly while Harris' lead is shrinking. All eyes are on states like Georgia and North Carolina where Trump maintains an advantage.
Bitcoin's rally was also fueled by news that Mt. Gox had delayed repayments to creditors until 2025, easing concerns about a sudden influx of liquidity into the market. This delayed repayments of about $2.9 billion, giving Bitcoin some breathing room, according to Arkham Intelligence. If those repayments were made early, the market could be flooded with sellers and prices would fall.
Institutions are also taking action. Three days after the outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, there was a strong inflow of about $253.6 million on October 11. However, despite these actions, Bitcoin has not changed much overall this month. Historically, October is a good time for the market, with an average increase of 20% in the past decade. But due to geopolitical uncertainty, several economies performing poorly at the same time, and Bitcoin's close correlation with stocks, this upward trend did not happen.
Back to Dongda. The world's second-largest economy is still struggling to shake off the drag on the economy from the pandemic, and the mixed response to its latest stimulus measures has made the market uneasy. The People's Bank of China announced a massive liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan and slashed mortgage rates on existing loans. But the big question remains: will it be enough? Although Dongda hopes for 5% GDP growth in 2024, analysts are not convinced, and Goldman Sachs only recently adjusted its forecast to 4.9%. The government is trying to avoid a repeat of the 2008 crisis, when they invested 4 trillion yuan, only to create more debt and industrial overcapacity. This time, they seem to be taking a more targeted approach, but the market doesn't seem to be convinced. Oil prices also fell, with the MSCI Emerging Currency Index falling 0.1%, and the South African rand and the Korean won also falling.