Bitcoin [BTC] price chart shows a potential change in market structure, signaling a potential breakout from the $50,000-$72,000 price range that began in March.
According to analyst Stockmoney Lizards, a range breakout could happen in two weeks. If so, the analyst predicts BTC could hit $75,000-80,000 if the recent drop below $60,000 is defended as a âhigher lowâ.
âIf this higher low is confirmed, we will break above resistance within 2 weeks. Next target is $75,000-80,000.â
To put things into perspective, BTC has been setting higher lows since August, a price trend that signals a potential change in market structure, especially if higher highs emerge.
Demand increases vs. risk
Investor demand for the worldâs largest digital asset also improved, showing a slow but steady recovery in demand in Q4 compared to Q2/Q3.
For perspective, BTC demand has been negative since May, with selling far outpacing buying. However, CryptoQuant notes that the pace of the imbalance has eased.
In fact, apparent demand for BTC measured over the past 30 trading days shows investor demand has reached levels last recorded in May.
About 150,000 BTC, worth about $9.4 billion, were taken in by investors from late September to mid-October.
Therefore, if this pattern persists over the next two weeks, increased demand could support the Stockmoney Lizards breakout forecast.
But increased leverage, represented by a surge in Open Interest (OI), also poses an imminent pitfall for breakout expectations.
For the uninitiated, increased leverage means speculators will take on more risk by borrowing money to open BTC positions on the futures market.
According to Glassnode, the recent weekend rally from $58.9k to $63.4k wiped out some short sellers ($2.5 billion in OI).
However, the analytics firm also noted that the drop in OI did not exceed 5%, a level that traditionally results in BTC rallying for an extended period if reached.
In short, increased volatility and liquidation risk on both sides of the price trend could derail breakout expectations.
Meanwhile, BTC is priced at $62.8k and is consolidating below the 200-day Moving Average (MA) at press time.
