The question isn’t whether Wall Street will react to earnings reports or retail sales data. That’s obvious. The question is what crypto investors and traders will do next this Uptober month, especially as Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to be in a state of consolidation.
Impact of earnings on stocks
Earnings season begins with giants like American Express, Netflix, United Airlines and Procter & Gamble ready to release results.
JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo beat expectations, sending their stocks soaring. The reports provide insight into U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
The cryptocurrency market is also responding to the same macroeconomic pressures. If consumers don't spend, Bitcoin will certainly feel the impact.
Goldman Sachs cut its recession odds to just 15% after recent jobs data. But layoffs in the financial and tech sectors, hurricanes and a short-lived dockworkers strike have made the consumer environment less predictable.
Over the next two weeks, more than 150 companies in the S&P 500 will report their earnings.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $64,320, up 2.5% over the past hour. Bitcoin's short-term trend is bullish, with the price above its 50-hour moving average, currently at $62,159. The 200-hour moving average, a longer-term trend indicator, is just above the price at $62,700.
Wall Street braces for earnings and retail data – what about crypto?
Volume trends also show cautious optimism. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which tracks buying and selling pressure, is rising, indicating accumulation.
In the Bitcoin derivatives market, trading volume fell 27.50% to $31.28 billion. Open interest (OI), which measures the number of outstanding contracts, also fell 1.68% to $34.68 billion.
These declines indicate reduced trading activity, possibly due to uncertainty from earnings reports.
The Bitcoin options market also saw less activity, with volume down 48.89% to $480.87 million. However, open interest remained the same, meaning traders are still holding their positions, waiting for the next signal.
The Long/Short ratio on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair is 1.2523, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment. In the past 12 hours, $9.80 million in short positions were liquidated, compared to $6.98 million in long positions, surprising many bearish traders.
Ethereum is also following a similar trend. The current price is $2,459, up 0.14% in the last hour. Ethereum saw a price increase, reaching $2,462 before retreating slightly.
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is also above its 50-hour moving average ($2,434) but just below its 200-hour moving average at $2,458. This suggests a short-term uptrend but faces resistance in the long-term.
Ethereum’s OBV also shows increased buying pressure, supporting the idea of an ongoing accumulation phase.
Ethereum derivatives trading volume fell 28.74% to $10.24 billion, with open interest down 2.36% to $11.38 billion.
Ethereum’s options market also showed a similar trend, with volume down 20.54% to $123.35 million, while open interest increased slightly by 0.60% to $4.79 billion.
The Long/Short ratio for the ETH/USDT pair on Binance is 2.2658, indicating a strong bullish bias. On OKX, the ratio is even higher at 2.54, meaning Ethereum traders are betting heavily on a breakout.
Liquidation data shows that investors expecting a drop in Ethereum price are being overwhelmed. In the last hour, $653.41K short positions were liquidated, compared to just $663.43K long positions.
Wall Street’s focus on earnings and retail data is clear, but crypto traders remain calm. Everyone is watching.
