The price of Toncoin (TON) has repeatedly tried to reach the $7 mark, but since the end of July, each time it approached this target, it retreated, causing concern among investors.
The price of Toncoin, the token of the TON project, faces a strong barrier that prevents it from maintaining long-term growth. We figure out what the token needs to successfully overcome this obstacle.
Current issues of Toncoin
Toncoin is currently trading 10% lower than a week ago and 37% below its all-time high. As a result, about 75% of token holders are at a loss. Most bought TON at a price higher than the current one.
An analysis of the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) metric shows that Toncoinâs price wonât be able to rise significantly unless some holders give in. IOMAP provides insight into support and resistance using the volume of purchases in certain price ranges. The larger the volume, or cluster, the stronger the support or resistance. In the case of Toncoin, about 5.33 million holders hold 610.55 million tokens, purchased at an average price of $5.23.
This volume exceeds those who purchased TON at prices between $4.49 and $5.05. It is also significantly higher than the volume purchased by the 8,330 addresses that are currently in the breakeven zone. Therefore, the asset is unlikely to receive support from these addresses. Instead, it may face a serious obstacle when trying to take the $5.23 barrier. This is a strong supply wall.
There is also another factor preventing Toncoin from reaching $7. This is the metric of average dollar age of assets (MDIA). The indicator tracks how long hodlers hold assets in their wallets. An increase in its values ââindicates a tendency towards long-term storage. A decrease, on the contrary, usually confirms the activity of long-term holders.
When this indicator increases, cryptocurrencies become less active, making it difficult for the price to rise. On the other hand, a decrease in MDIA indicates that tokens are starting to become active, thereby increasing the chances of an early rise. As can be seen below, the MDIA for TON has increased, suggesting that coin stagnation may be holding back price growth.
TON Forecast: Bears Continue to Dominate
Toncoin is currently trading below two key moving averages: the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA. In addition, the 50 EMA (yellow) has risen above the 20 EMA (blue), indicating sellers are dominating.
Now the bears may try to push the price below the support level of $5.12. If they succeed, the token value may fall to $4.89, which will make it difficult for TON to recover to $7.
TON Daily Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, if Toncoin rises above these EMAs, it will be difficult for the bears to make the expected decline. Instead, the price may break the resistance at $5.67 and rise to $6.18.
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