Toncoin in Trouble? Falling Burn Rate Could Trigger a 22% Price Drop
Toncoin has dropped to $4.80, marking its lowest point since November 6 and a 33% decline from its November peak.
Data indicates that this price slump aligns with increased exchange inflows, suggesting continued investor sell-offs. Over the past week, more than 240,000
$TON tokens have been transferred to exchanges.
Meanwhile, Ton Stat data reveals a decline in TON’s daily burn rate. On January 28, only 5,805 tokens (worth about $27,000) were burned—down significantly from the monthly high of 15,000. A shrinking burn rate often signals bearish sentiment, as fewer coins are being removed from circulation.
Compounding this issue, the supply of newly minted TON tokens is on the rise, pushing annual inflation to its highest in nearly six months. The inflation rate now stands at 0.37%, up from last year’s low of 0.337%.
The broader
$TON ecosystem is also under strain, with major tokens like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat hovering near their lowest levels.
Technical indicators paint a grim picture. TON’s price has extended its downtrend, reaching $4.70 and testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern. A death cross has also formed, with the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages crossing—a historically bearish signal.
Further downside risk remains, as oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and Money Flow Index continue to weaken. If the decline persists, TON could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.78, nearly 22% below its current price.
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